Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays for Goodwood & Galway

Paul gets his crystal ball out for the week's top value plays in Ireland & the UK.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change. Some odds are also ante-post prices so if your pick doesn’t run for whatever reason you will lose your stake. 

Fancy winning £/€10k every day at Goodwood?

15:35 Goodwood, Tuesday – Coltrane/Thunderous

This game we play of punting is all about making a long term gain and sometimes a bit of luck, combined with foresight and what I call nicking a profit by being rather sly. I think it must be long odds on that Trueshan won’t run in the Goodwood Cup if the weather forecast is right and the ground is on the fast side come mid afternoon on Tuesday. That will leave just the dead eight to go to post and I think we can probably make a profit by taking two double figure entries against the field.

COLTRANE has made rapid strides this season and I have already backed him each-way at 16/1 for this feature event. He has done nothing but make great strides this season landing the two and a half mile Ascot Handicap Stakes at the Royal meeting in brave fashion and then chalking a career bets success in the Marathon at Sandown Park when he dismissed six rivals by 10 lengths and a whole lot more. On official figures that still leaves him with 8-10lbs with the best of these, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that this son of Mastercraftsman will take another step forward here and if one or two of big three at the top of the market run below par I suspect he can hit the three at the very least.

The Andrew Balding runner is my main selection, but I can’t resist having a few pennies each-way on the complete outsider THUNDEROUS. Officially only rated a single pound behind Coltrane yet six times the price, the five-year-old has not been suited by the run of the race on his last two starts. He arguably ran too free behind Quickthorn in the Henry II and this will be only his second start over two miles and as such remains unexposed over this trip. His shrewd trainer has reverted back to the normal blinkers and I think there is a massive chance that he will outrun his massive odds.

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17:20 Goodwood, Wednesday – Milltown Star/Dance Fever

This looks a cracking seven furlong handicap for the grade (class three), and with 20 runners set to line up on fast ground, a low draw and the ability to race prominently will be an obvious advantage. His young rider just couldn’t hold onto Mum’s Tipple at Royal Ascot, but he ran a much better race at Newmarket at the beginning of the month when third off 92 when reunited with Sean Levey. Still, the feeling is that seven furlongs still stetches his stamina and although he has a peach of a draw in two, he may well find a couple of these too strong inside the distance.

The likely favourite Wild Lion is an unexposed four-year-old and if taking another step forward will go close if negotiating a safe passage from stall 15, but the value against both of them surely lies with one of the massive outsiders. Recently transferred from Mick Channon to Jamie Osborne, the bay gelding has seemingly lost his way in the past 12 months, a view that is reflected in his handicap mark, down from 100 at the back end of 2020 to 79 here. However, there were glimpses last term that he retains more than his fair share of his old ability, notably when beaten just over three lengths by recent Royal Hunt Cup winner Dark Shift at Ayr. A slow pace wouldn’t have suited him on his comeback run at Newmarket, looked burly in the paddock that day, and I suspect that was merely a run to sharpen him up for this. Nicely drawn in stall 3, I think he can massively outrun his odds. 

With the selection set to go off at 40/1 plus it makes sense to have a saver on something at the top end of the market and Dance Fever fits the bill. A fast run seven is what this 5yo needs and he showed last time out behind Hebrides that he has finally returned to a winning mark of 94. His only run at the track was a fair fourth to the smart Aratus off 100 and he gets to race off 94 here.

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17:05 Galway, Thursday – Micro Manage

At the time of writing (Monday) Willie Mullins has no less than nine entered in the Galway Hurdle filling five of the top 12 in the betting. His Echoes In Rain could hold the key to the shape of the race with top weight of 11-12 equating to a mark of 150 with the second in the list being a full 6lbs below him. The mare runs on the flat in the Connacht Hotel Handicap on Monday.

You could make a decent case out for the likes of his Hors Piste, third to Brandy Love in the Grade One Mares novice Hurdle Championship at Fairyhouse, and subsequently an easy winner of a two and a half mile novice hurdle at Kilbeggan; a mark of 135 looks very fair, and the Maxios gelding Tax For Max who has a nice racing weight off a mark of 134.

However, I am going to go out on a limb in the hope that he gets into the final line up (currently 27 on the list) and go for this son of Rip Van Winkle. An 11 length winner of his maiden at Thurles, the second went on to land her maiden with ease, after which the six-year-old had only one further start over timber when down the field at Punchestown behind the smart El Fabiolo. Two runs in May and last month on the flat (eye catching, running on fifth of 13 behind earl of Tyrone at the Curragh) should have put him spot on for this and it is worth noting that this six-year-old has won on the flat at the West of Ireland track over 14 furlongs. 

Third in the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes and then seventh in the Irish St Leger itself, he remains unexposed over timber and could easily be a springer in the market if getting into the final field.

13:50 Goodwood, Friday – Hydroplane

I was really glad to see the shrewd Ian Williams give his charge a really strong mention in the Racing Post on Monday as I had backed this lightly raced sort, (just eight runs on the flat turf), last week. I think that he has been absolutely crying out for step up in trip and his six length win at Chester last month suggests that he is still on the upgrade. That success was off a mark of 76 and a 6lbs penalty from the assessor looks more than fair. Ian has always targeted this race in the past and Silvestre de Sousa has also been seen to good effect in the past over the two and a half mile trip here and I shall be both surprised and disappointed if he is not involved at the business end.

Goodwood & Galway racing tips

15:35 Goodwood, Tuesday – Coltrane/Thunderous
17:20 Goodwood, Wednesday – Milltown Star/Dance Fever
17:05 Galway, Thursday – Micro Manage

17:05 Goodwood, Friday – Hydroplane

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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