Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday

PJ's back on his relentless quest for winning value this weekend.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

13:30 Stratford – Elios D’Or

It is quite hard to find four value plays this weekend with, Ireland aside, mainly small fields set to go to post in the UK. However, this extended two mile handicap chase has a nice in running shape to it to encourage an investment of some sort.

Mick Pastor is the obvious place to start having been campaigned over his head in the past 12 months after winning a novice handicap chase last autumn at Exeter off a mark of 147. But since then on his last three starts (off 147, 145 and 143) he has been beaten an accumulative total of 109 lengths.

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Clearly, if he comes back to his best he is fairly well treated and this is a wee bit easier, but his attentions for the lead could well be hindered by the free going Caddyhill who arrives here following a second wind operation and with the visor on for the first time. So, in anticipation of an end to end gallop this well set up nicely for the tip.

Robert Walford’s team are running very well at the moment and following an easy win off 104 at Ludlow (jumped better on that flatter track) Elios D’Or was raised to 110 and was just touched off in the dying embers to the tune of a neck by Pencreek at Worcester. This quick track will suit his high cruising speed and I can see Sam Twiston-Davies getting his charge to pop his fences in behind the likely red hot pace before unleashing him in the home stretch at the final fence. A mark of 114 clearly requires a probable career best but he comes into this contest in really good form.

14:10 Curragh – Dr Zempf

There is little doubt that the majority of pundits and punters will fancy Order of Australia to replicate his victory from 12 months ago and Aidan O’Brien’s charge is the most obvious winner, down in class. The likely favourite has taken the same route as last year, running in the Queen Anne Stakes first as a nice set-up for this. Based on that effort behind Baaeed you could argue he is better than ever and that the title holder should be closer than even-money than 2/1.

However, I am going to take a chance on the Ger Lyons’ trained runner Dr Zempf now that his astute trainer has finally found his optimum set-up. Last year, as a juvenile, he looked set to emerge as a specialist miler plus and indeed Ger thought he would be his 2,000 Guineas horse, but an opening win in the Irish 2,000 Guineas Trial was workmanlike to say the least and was then followed by a very disappointing fifth in the Tetrarch Stakes when he dropped away very tamely.

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The problem with this son of Dark Angel is that he tends to run very free in the early stages of his races, something that was replicated yet again last time out when he won the Ballychorus Stakes at Leopardstown, eventually running out an easy winner. But the significance of that race was the drop back down to seven furlongs.

I fancy that there is even more improvement in him and if he were mine I would even be happy to run him over six furlongs such is his high cruising speed and I was surprised he wasn’t given a Group One entry at Royal Ascot or in the July Cup. That 1,200m could well be where his future is.

16:25 Redcar – Bearwith

By the very nature of this being a class six handicap at the Cleveland track you would think that it would take very little winning, but there are several runners here highly capable of making their mark even though entry to the winning circle for them is an endangered species.

Clotherholme is the exception to that rule having won twice on his last three starts off marks of 55 and 57 and still remains feasibly handicapped here. However, you could readily argue that the top weight ha shown by far his best form over a mile and even more so over seven furlongs.

A hold-up horse like the selection, he is respected as is Premiership, while Mac Alley surely needs more give in the ground before returning to winning form even if he is very nicely treated at the moment.

Bearwith was ridden way too close to the pace when fading tamely over the stiff 10 furlongs at Pontefract off a mark of 58 following a 132 day break, but ridden with more restraint was a real eye catcher when a never nearer eighth of 14 to Stoney Lane at Beverley, but only beaten a shade over two lengths. Surprisingly the assessor has dropped him 2lbs for that run and if Cam Hardie can relax him in rear I can see him passing the majority of his rivals down the long home stretch here.

Sunday’s racing tips

13:30 Stratford – Elios D’Or
14:10 Curragh – Dr Zempf
16:25 Redcar – Bearwith

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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