Horse Racing Tips: Royal Ascot Saturday Cheat Sheet from Paddy’s pundits

ALFRED MUNNINGS has been one of the bankers for Ascot ever since he hacked up at Leopardstown first time and there won’t be many people taking him on here for Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien. The second and third in that race have both been stuffed since. But the fourth won well so the form is probably all right.

I’m going to take on Alfred Munnings and I’ve landed on DARK THIRTY, based purely on form. He won at Newbury in May and the two horses behind him, Mysterious Night and Marbaan, have both gone and won since. He’s a good each-way shout against a very short favourite.

Was gambled on his racecourse debut at Yarmouth as if defeat was out of the question. That was undone by a very slow gallop in the early stages, but ALZAHIR rattled home and three strides past the line was powering to the front. It’s been a poor week for Italian jockey Frankie Dettori, but he could get one on the scoresheet here.

Alfred Munnings is the short-priced favourite for this, but the form has taken a couple of hits so I think there is value to be had with some of the others.

FAISAL ROAD for John and Thady Gosden looked like a horse for the future when winning at Yarmouth. He gets the each-way nod from me in this contest. If Frankie Dettori was on board this lad would be shorter but Jack Mitchell is retained by the owner.

I respect the chances of favourite Alfred Munnings here, but the horse he beat that day was subsequently beaten by much further at the Curragh by CRYPTO FORCE, and it seems odd that he should be a double-figure price when he has a similar profile to the odds-on favourite.

Attheraces had a Flat preview show at the start of the season and I put up MONAADAH as my horse to follow for Saeed bin Suroor. Since then he’s hacked up at both Newcastle and Kempton at reasonable odds and now he goes here. It’s not going to be easy against the likes of Noble Truth who is rated 9lb better, but he should have no problem with the turf and I’ll take the chance each way.

This is a pretty open race but I’m going with MONAADAH for Saeed bin Suroor. He won at Meydan in March and has followed that up with wins at Newcastle and Kempton. Jim Crowley is on board too.

Had some rock-solid juvenile form last season, but returned with a very tame effort by his standards in the 2000 Guineas. DUBAWI LEGEND has long been the apple of his trainer’s eye (Hugo Palmer), and has his sights lowered somewhat as a confidence booster. The fast ground over the long sprint distance looks ideal.

I really like the filly STAR GIRL AALMAL. She won very well at Gowran Park and ran a hell of a race in the Irish 1000 Guineas. I feel 7f is made for her I think she is a cracking bet in this contest.

The one who might end up overpriced was HELLO YOU, who won the Rockfel Stakes as a juvenile, beating no less a rival than Cachet. She was then conceding weight and fitness to Cachet when third to that rival in the Nell Gwyn, and failed to stay in the 1000 Guineas. She still has a penalty here, but could sneak into the places at a good price.

Very hard to get away from HURRICANE LANE who should be gar too good for this lot for Charlie Appleby and William Buick. The St Leger hero and Arc third is the type to do even better with age – the only worry is the ground as he’s never gone on a quick surface. That said, there is a chance of some rain Saturday. We will have to wait and see.

If Hurricane Lane is the horse he was last year then he should win but I’m going to take him on with MOSTAHDAF for John and Thady Gosden. He was well beaten by Bay Bridge on his last start at Sandown but he still ran well. He’s a good each-way shout.

Top rated, and yes he’s going to be short odds, but HURRICANE LANE will take some beating. Another added bonus is he has a fantastic record when fresh, and looks the cornerstone of many accumulators on Saturday afternoon.

HURRICANE LANE won the St Leger last year, the only concern is the ground. Broome is the obvious danger.

AWAY HE GOES is the rank outsider of the party, but unlike a few he will love the quick ground having gained all three wins on such a surface, and he is capable of hitting the frame at a massive price. He failed to win last year, but ran well when giving Trueshan a race in the Goodwood Cup, and is underestimated.

A huge field declared although I suspect there will be non runners if the ground doesn’t change. No doubt Aussie hope Home Affairs is the one to beat, but SACRED is interesting at a price for William Haggas and Tom Marquand. Now the filly stays up to a mile so this is a bit short for the daughter of Exceed and Excel. That said I imagine she will dropped out and ridden cold for a place so I’ll risk her each way.

Home Affairs could very well win this and give Australia another win but I like CREATIVE FORCE. They’ll go hard in this and that will suit him. He’s drawn in stall one and he’s already had a couple of winners from low draws. I’d rather be on that side. He’ll want all of the 6f but he’ll do me!

EMARAATY ANA is completely overlooked in the market after two below par efforts over in Dubai. But we shouldn’t underestimate the natural ability that he showed last season, when winning up at the top level. The yard don’t normally walk away from this meeting empty-handed, and will be expecting him to way outrun his odds.

Sacred is a bold shout I know, however, this daughter of Exceed And Excel handles fast ground really well. She has a lot of speed, as she showed when she beat Saffron Beach in the Nell Gwyn last year first time out. We all saw what Saffron Beach did earlier in the week!

I think the 6f at Ascot could be perfect. You have a few horses in front of her in the betting who are proven sprinters but they are priced accordingly. I think SACRED is a sporting each way bet in a tricky race to call.

Once again, it would appear that the pace is largely on the far side, with Highfield Princess sure to blaze from stall 5, and that makes me think the contest will be set up for Creative Force, who appeals as an each-way alternative to the favourite.

CREATIVE FORCE stays seven, as he showed when winning the Jersey Stakes a year ago, but he proved that this track and trip are ideal when producing his best effort in winning the British Champions Sprint Stakes, and he won’t mind fast ground having won three times on good/firm.

FRESH really should have a cracking eachway chance for Danny Tudhope, who has had a fabulous week, and James Fanshawe. The Victoria Cup fourth will be keeping on strongly over this trip and chased home Rohaan in the 2020 renewal. That was off 96 and he’s on 98 now so he has every chance. Would love some rain.

I was doing my research on Quarantine Dreams and that led me straight to WARRIOR BRAVE. He’s drawn in stall three and he’s a great price. He ties in with the favourite too. Warrior Brave is 1lb worse off for his and Quarantine Dreams’ run at Naas in April yet he’s a much bigger price. He’ll get the trip too.

Cost a fortune for new connections from the horses in training sales, and so far has run well without looking as if he’s going to go all the way to the top level. TABDEED is back in handicap company, which will see him in a much more comfortable rhythm and looks fairly weighted on the mark of 102. He’s drawn in the middle, and can be another Royal Ascot winner for the trainer jockey combination of Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle.

Archie Watson has been amongst the winners this week and this son of Havana Gold has run some good races on fast ground so conditions are perfect and TABDEED’S not badly handicapped off 102. Interesting that Ryan Moore has plumped for Rohaan. He would have had a few choices in this.

Top of my list is SUMMERGHAND who is a horse who tends to show his best form when the sun is shining, and his handicap record on fast turf in June/July/August in recent years reads: 131542211. He gets headgear back on here, and looks sure to run well if stall 27 is not a hindrance.

GROUNDBREAKER might run well here for Andrew Balding and Andrea Atzeni. He never got in the race behind Ottoman Fleet at Newmarket last time when slowly away but had looked promising in a maiden at Doncaster and might have more to offer as an each way hope.

I’m with PERVADE as the favourite is short enough! Colin Keane is on board for Francis-Henri Graffard. He’s drawn in stall 16 and he’s a solid each-way price. He could be progressive and he’s not coming for a day out.

PHANTOM FLIGHT has been put forward by his young fledgling trainer, James Horton, as his best horse, and has a fancy pedigree to go with that lofty reputation. He was always in command when winning last time, travelling very strongly into the contest which will help in the hustle and bustle of a race like this. Fast ground also looks a positive for this smooth moving machine.

Frankie Dettori has not had the best of weeks but I’m hoping that’s all going to change. I like Honiton in here. He bolted up at Sandown and, if you look at the horses that have beaten him in maidens this year, he finished third to Eldar Eldarov at Newcastle that is strong form.

He also finished third behind My Prospero at Newbury with Thesis second. Thesis won at Royal Ascot in the week and My Prospero finished a very close third in the St James’s Palace. HONITON is not badly handicapped off 94 so fingers crossed.

HONITON is a hopeful choice in a fiendishly tough handicap. He was a good third to Eldar Eldarov at Newcastle before winning his maiden in a fast time at Sandown, and with his conqueror landing the Queen’s Vase earlier in the week, his form looks strong.

If Trueshan turns up here (needs rain) then obviously he should be a good thing. I’ll back FALCON EIGHT win or each way (depending on Trueshan) for Dermot Weld and Tom Marquand. The former Chester Cup winner has every chance off a mark of 108 for the master of Rosewell.

I’m very much in the Wordsworth camp for Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien as I can’t see Trueshan running. Going up in trip will suit WORDSWORTH and there should be plenty of extra improvement.

TIMOUR is the only runner throughout the meeting for the multiple French champion trainer A.Fabre. He also takes a massive hike up in distance, and that confidence about staying well should not be underestimated when coming from this quarter. We have a lot of the old favourites taking each other on, and he is flying in under the radar completely unexposed at the distance.

Will he or won’t he run? That is the question. If the rain comes I think TRUESHAN will win. If no rain we have to go with WORDSWORTH.

The class horses ought to dominate here, but at a huge price, I can see the thorough stayer SINGLE outrunning her odds. She is only rated in the 70’s and victory would be a huge shock, but not many horses really stay this far, and Single is game if lacking pace. She will keep plugging on as other tire, and she could run into a place, while she’s also capable of boosting returns on exotic bets.