Horse Racing Tips: A 25/1 play leads Paul Jacobs’ early Royal Ascot fancies

The Racing Post's naps table Champion tipster is getting in some early form study ahead of the mid June Flat fiesta.

Paul Jacobs

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*Odds quoted on the widget are Future Racing/Antepost prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason, you will lose your stake under traditional antepost rules

Royal Ascot sees 35 races over 5 days, with the action kicking off on Tuesday 14th June, and ending on Saturday 18th. With some early best bets, Paddy’s got our expert Paul Jacobs to cast his expert eye over the cards – let’s get his verdict.

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Tuesday 15:40, King’s Stand Stakes – Arecibo (each-way)

They say that ante-post and each-way betting have gone out of fashion, I totally disagree. Every horse will have a blip during a season, but if you think that your pick has the perfect profile for a race, three, six or even 12 months in advance, why not grab the value? One long-range wager even over three years can see you well into the black for that period.

Golden Pal should take all the beating in this sprint championship race on the festival’s opening day, but remember most bookmakers will be offering extra places on the day but just three places in the ante-post markets. I am dumbfounded as to why he is such a big price and the American raider could still remain vulnerable over this stiff 5f trip.

Arecibo was second in the race last year, picking up the pieces behind Oxted and the now seven-year-old has had the perfect warm-up for this. He shaped with plenty of promise in the Palace House at Newmarket and then arguably did too much too soon when third in that Temple Stakes at Haydock Park. If Rossa Ryan keeps the ride at Ascot, which I doubt, then he needs to take a leaf out of the Jamie Spencer book of tactics. JP just let his partner roll in behind runners 12 months ago and only really asked him for an effort inside the distance, making up an inordinate amount of ground to go a clear second and closing 100 yards out.

The lesson is, cover this seven-year-old, keep him in traffic and therefore minimal daylight and then unleash that turn of foot as late as possible. If we once again have fast ground on the opening day, I will be hugely disappointed if he doesn’t hit the three places. If JP Spencer rides I will even more confident. Remember, you don’t have to back a winner to make a profit!

Wednesday 17:00, Royal Hunt Cup – Fastnet Crown (each-way)

Although he is set to race off a mark of 107, I was hugely taken by the run of One Ruler in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs at the track last month. Sixth in last year’s 2,000 Guineas, only beaten five lengths by Poetic Flare before filling the same position when patently not seeing out the trip in the Epsom Derby, he was then beaten a shade over five lengths by the mighty Baaeed in the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes at Newmarket when he probably raced too prominently.

Two solid runs in Meydan this spring, including a cracking third to Real World in the Zabeel, was followed by that strong finishing effort back down in trip at Ascot. Of course he is going to need the benefit of a good draw on the day, but granted luck in the run he looks a big player as his price suggests – despite his inflated rating. I will be having a saver on the top weight behind my main selection Fastnet Crown. at twice the price.

I am quite sweet on my each-way wager for this Irish raider.

Two wins from 16 career outings for Michael O’Callaghan hardly sets the pulse racing, but on closer inspection his placed efforts in valuable handicaps in Ireland show that he is well suited by the hurly burly of these big-field cavalry charges.

The last them came in a Premier handicap at the Curragh when the son of Hallowed Crown was continually denied a run towards the stands’ side of the track, before keeping on really stoutly in the final 200 yards to secure a never nearer eighth of 27 beaten a smidgeon over three lengths. Like the Godolphin charge, his style of racing demands plenty of luck in running, but judged on that last start he looks a good fit for this race.

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Thursday 14:30, Norfolk Stakes – Brave Nation (each-way)

When it comes to the juvenile events at Royal Ascot, Aidan O’Brien will naturally have a strong team and even more so this year as his two-year-old’s seem to have come to hand a bit earlier this season. However, there is an upside to opposing his team in both the Coventry and Norfolk Stakes.

Firstly, the layers seem to over-estimate their chances and as a result purely because of his name on the score board his entries are regularly too tight in the market place. He could well send his two time winner, The Antarctic here, but that would hopefully make this race the perfect set-up for an each-way play against the son of Dark Angel and this Michael Bell trained rep looks that wager.

Brave Nation looked a real speedball on his debut at Doncaster, firing out of the traps and bounding clear, having the prize under lock and key from half way. A lovely moving sort, this son of Sioux Nation simply glided over the fast ground that day and he has been kept under wraps especially for this prize.

If he gets a good draw and top of the ground, he is the alternative to the Ballydoyle runner in this 5f blitz.

Thurs 15:40, Ribblesdale Stakes – Rogue Millennium (each-way)

With the first three in the ante-post betting namely Emily Upjohn, Nashwa and With The Moonlight all set to run in the Epsom Oaks, this Group Two event looks sure to cut up badly. My selection has a bit to find with the likes of fellow intended runners Sea Silk Road and Magical Lagoon, but there are reasons to expect a big step forward here for Rogue Millennium.

Tom Clover’s charge didn’t race as a juvenile, making her career debut when landing a novice event over a mile and quarter at Windsor (third has won since) and then stepped up markedly to win the Lingfield Oaks’ Trial from Mystic Wells.

Several factors went against her that day, namely running with the choke out and wide of the pack, Jack Mitchell desperate to find cover then took her back in the field. She was then badly outpaced three furlongs out before powering down the centre of the track to lead close home, lugged to her left in the process. Her jockey couldn’t pull her up until running well into the back straight and I suspect with a faster pace she would have run out a more emphatic winner.

The bare form isn’t outstanding with some well fancied fillies on the day appearing to run well below form, but this daughter of Dubawi has any amount of scope being a lovely lengthy filly and everything that could have gone against her did. With the best of her generation set to attend the Epsom party she looks solid each-way material.

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