*Odds quoted on the widget are Non Runner Money Back prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason – you’ll get your stake back
1 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Tuesday) – FLOUEUR
With eight entries in the first handicap of the meeting, Gordon Elliot will have a huge say in this 3m Chase. Frontal Assault is set to run in the Kim Muir later in the week and although Death Duty was mentioned by the Co. Meath trainer as his best treated entry but the 11-year-old will be pushed to confirm Punchestown form with stable mate, FLOUEUR.
That marathon test on deep ground was too much for the selection. It is worth remembering his performance in the Martin Pipe 12 months ago when he finished off his race very strongly to come home a shade over 11 lengths behind the impressive Gallopin Des Champs.
If Come On Teddy (62 in the list) gets in, he is worth a substantial saver. If not, he is certainly the pick of the weights in the Kim Muir where he’s guaranteed a run.
I am not quite sure that the novice I Don’t Know is exactly ‘thrown in’ at the weights as many pundits think. His October success (three-horse race) has finally been franked, but he has made serious mistakes on each of his four chase outings, despite winning three of them. I am happy to oppose him.
Of the remainder, the soft ground forecast for Day One will certainly play to the strengths of recent Swinley Chase winner, Fortescue and impressive Kelso winner, Empire Steel.
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2 – Coral Cup/Martin Pipe (Wed/Fri) – BEAUPORT
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a real player in either contest with his lightly raced, second season hurdler BEAUPORT. His strong finishing second to the highly progressive Green Book over three miles at Sandown Park was a huge step forward.
The fact that he was doing all of his best work at the business end of that contest on that stiff track leads me to believe that trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies will run him in Friday’s race, with the much tougher New Course set to play to his stamina strengths.
The final entry for this race is up in the air with so many of the major Irish trainers having multiple entries. Mullins and Elliot have five winners between them in this festival closer in the last eight years and Deploy The Getaway (Mullins) and Queens Brook (Elliot) could fit the bill for them.
Knappers Hill has the perfect profile for this, but he looks too far down the handicap to get a run. The forgotten horse of the 2020/21 novice hurdle campaign is Henry De Bromhead’s Irascible who rates as the saver play at a huge price. He twice got to within nine lengths of Appreciate It as a novice, but then blew out completely in the Supreme Novices.
He was given a very kind and considerate ride on his one run since then when well down the field in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle last month and that will have teed him up nicely for a shot at this. The seven-year-old also has entries in the Coral and County hurdles, but this looks the more realistic option.
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3 – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Thursday) – IF THE CAP FITS
Some 12 months ago, IF THE CAP FITS, was regarded as a lively outsider for the Stayers Hurdle. You could argue that he was travelling best of all coming down the hill, but then bottomed out after turning for home, eventually finishing ninth of the 15 runners, beaten some 30 lengths.
Dropped from an official mark of 158 down to his present rating of 137, if amateur rider Ben Bromley (7lbs) is again booked, he could be a massive player here, held up on much better ground in a fast run race; well that is the way I would ride him on the stiffer New Course as to my eyes he simply cannot arrive too late on the scene.
Of course in such a fiercely competitive handicap there are plenty of dangers and plot horses the most of obvious of which are Alaphillipe and Sire du Berlais and less so Remastered.
The former travelled like the wrath of god in his qualifier at Warwick in January and has not raced since, he could well be the proverbial graded horse running in a handicap.
The more the ground dries out by Thursday, the better the chance of 2019/20 winner SDB and he is not to be written off at the age of 10 despite his welter burden.
Remastered is more left of centre, but rated the best part of 14lb lower over hurdles this would be a very interesting re-route from David Pipe for the nine-year-old. Following a cracking run in the Ladbrokes Trophy, he has run two fair races in the Tommy Whittle and Peter Marsh at Haydock seemingly finding them too deep a test of stamina on the ground at the Merseyside track.
He remains on the same mark over timber as he was when third to Koshari on his career debut at Aintree. At the time of writing he is number 33 on the list and it is worth noting that this is his only entry at The Festival and he could be worth a saver at a big price.
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4 – Grand Annual Chase (Wednesday) – THYME WHITE
Rated a full 12lbs above his last winning mark, one of the market leaders, Buddy Rich, has his work cut out here from a mark of 144, while both Brave Seasca and Ciel de Neige (not well treated off 152) make too many niggly mistakes to make them of interest especially around the tighter Old Course. Rated 3lbs below his highest hurdles mark, Coeur Sublime arrives here relatively fresh and has solid claims, but the value has been squeezed out of his price.
As a consequence of those negatives for those at the top of the market, there is a whole load of each-way value to be had with the likes of Amarillo Sky and to an even greater degree at a much bigger price with THYME WHITE.
The former finally put in a clear round of jumping when hosing up at Newbury last time out and may still be well treated under an 8lbs penalty, the slight drawback being that all of his best form has come on flat tracks.
The selection has always been highly rated by Paul Nicholls, but niggly problems throughout his career have restricted him to 17 runs, just the three over fences. He had a nice 7lbs pull with Amarillo Sky for a one and a half length beating at Wincanton at the beginning of the season and is arguably less exposed than his rival.
His strong travelling style will be well suited to this race, especially when you note that there is a huge pace contingent in here and I could easily envisage him running all over his rivals turning for home granted a clear round.
*Odds quoted on the widget are Non Runner Money Back prices which means that if your selection does not run in the race for whatever reason – you’ll get your stake back
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