Horse Racing tips: Paul Jacobs’ best bets for a Super Saturday of ITV Racing

Four tracks. 11 picks. One Paul Jacobs. Bosh!

Paul Jacobs

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

13:15 Sandown – Moonlighter

Tamaroc Du Mathan is undoubtedly well handicapped on his novice form, notably on his opening two chasing starts as a novice. The key to his chance is a sound surface and under such conditions he would be a leading player. But, the weather forecast is quite mixed and leans me in the direction of last year’s winner Moonlighter, who is set to race off a 7lbs lower mark when he outstayed Dolos. He has run well on this quicker surface and gets the nod over C&D winner Frero Banbou.

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13:35 Leopardstown – Icare Allen

Fil Dor is the obvious place to start here and he was impressive (apart from the last flight) when extending his winning margin over the smart Lunar Power to 7l from just over length here at the Christmas meeting. There is more to come from stable mate The Tide Turns, but in a race which has had its surprises in the past this could be the day for the Mullins’ charge Icare Allen to step up to the plate. Staying seems to be his strong point and with three of the field pressers that like to be at the sharp end, the son of Cokoriko could be the solution to turn over the likely odds-on favourite on the long run for home.

13:50 Sandown – Song For Someone

Goshen simply can’t be trusted and in any case would require the ground to change radically. You could argue this is his easiest task since getting rid of Jamie Moore in the Triumph Hurdle, but the percentage play is to ride in with the Tom Symonds’ trained charge Song For Someone. I would love to see him run in the Stayers at Cheltenham, but I fancy he may head straight to Aintree from here and on 6lbs better terms is taken to reverse International Hurdle placings with Guard Your Dreams.

14:05 Musselburgh – Cool Mix

The make-up of this veteran’s race looks fairly clear with two confirmed front runners set to make this a relative test at the two and three quarter mile trip. One of those, Glen Forsa, (the other is Brotherly Company) is arguably the stand out at the weights, but Lorcan Williams will need to get his fractions spot on unlike Gavin Sheehan, who went too fast on the 10-year-old at Ascot at the end of October. In any case, he may set this up for Cool Mix. A repeat of his third to Romain de Senam here in January may be good enough and off a 9lbs lower mark he has very solid claims.

14:20 Sandown – Pic DOrhy

Getting into a rhythm around here is essential especially for these novices and despite his stable struggling I think that a clear round will see the Nicholls’ runner Pic DOrhy put it up to the market leader L’Homme Presse. When he has been on song he has looked a top class prospect and good ground would certainly aid his cause in that respect. Fugitif needs a big step forward to trouble the top two, but bar his Haydock run in horrible ground, has impressed with the way he travels in his races.

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14:30 Wetherby – Saint Palais

I always thought that his Newbury win came in a race which fell apart and when he is put under pressure, Ahoy Senor has looked vulnerable and awkward and that could be the case again here. Quite simply, in receipt of 11lbs, the five-year-old selection Saint Palais looks a good thing. In three runs this year he has been highly progressive and he looks a much more safer conveyance than his market rival.

14:40 Musselburgh – Fiveandtwenty

I thought that this was the perfect set-up for the Middleham Park Racing charge Fiveandtwenty, a winner on fast ground on the flat in 2020 and a hat-trick winner over course and distance through the early part of 2021. The last of those victories was off 128 and following wind surgery his comeback run behind the smart Tommy’s Oscar here on New Year’s Day was a fair effort. Another 4lbs lower here, the five-year-old can make the most of the 15lbs he will receive from Highly Prized.

14:55 Sandown – Beauport

I think if there is any give in the ground then the Twiston-Davies charge Beauport will take a deal of beating stepping up to three miles. Genuinely good ground is obviously seen as a negative for him, but rain expected over Friday could see that set-up could be eliminated. His run behind Drashel Dasher at Newbury is the key piece of form and he can push aside a 5lbs rise in the weights and see off the progressive Orbys Legend – who is no certainty to see out the 3m – and the strong staying Born Patriot.

15:15 Leopardstown – Minella Indo

Despite just the eight set to go to post I think this is one of the most fascinating renewals of the Irish Gold Cup. Delta Work will relish the ground and the 2019 winner could conceivably take a step back in the right direction at a double figure price. Asterion Forlonge continues to frustrate and whatever his jumping problems, two and a half miles is his trip, so I will wade in with last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Minella Indo. A well beaten fourth behind Kemboy 12 months ago, it was a wholesale mistake to go to Kempton where he was always on the back foot, but he arrives here a much fresher horse than last year and can gain his revenge on Frodon.

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15:30 Sandown – Farinet

I think that given the right conditions that Farinet could take in graded races, that is less sure on quicker ground, but if the forecast showers arrive before racing then he should be able to shrug off his penalty here over a course and distance that clearly suits. Real Steel is clearly the best handicapped entry, but needs to show he retains his old ability which leaves his stable mate, Kapcorse and spring heeled Le Milos as his biggest dangers.

15:45 Musselburgh – Coup De Pinceau

Fully 22lbs higher than for winning this 12 months ago, Mighty Thunder has a tough task here as does Welsh National runner-up Highland Hunter even though the last named runs off the same mark and both are giving weight away to less talented individuals. But I think that this near four mile slog will be right up the street of Coup De Pinceau. He is a full 14lbs better off with the first named on Scottish National form and has been aimed at this race all season. You can forget his run at Taunton last time out as he lost a shoe and was never going. He has solid each-way claims at a double figure price with no weight on his back.

Paul’s Saturday tips:

13:15 Sandown – Moonlighter
13:35 Leopardstown – Icare Allen
13:50 Sandown – Song For Someone
14:05 Musselburgh – Cool Mix
14:20 Sandown – Pic DOrhy
14:30 Wetherby – Saint Palais
14:40 Musselburgh – Fiveandtwenty
14:55 Sandown – Beauport
15:15 Leopardstown – Minella Indo
15:30 Sandown – Farinet
15:45 Musselburgh – Coup De Pinceau

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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