Horse Racing tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays across the tracks on Sunday

Some punts in the UK and Ireland from our form fanatic.

Paul Jacobs

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

1.30 Kempton – Crown Power

Several of these are tricky sorts with the well weighted Cirrus trying cheek pieces for the first time following a second wind operation and a visor put on the disappointing Pettinger. The last named is the dark horse in the line-up having previously run in some valuable handicaps in France, but since coming to these shores he has been beaten over 70 lengths in just the three outings.

Top weight Pretty Sweet can be relied upon to run to a fair mark again, but in receipt of five pounds, the James Fanshawe trained charge gets a solid vote.

The four-year-old daughter of Camelot got off the mark at the second time of asking in her career last year over 11 furlongs here and was then allotted a mark in the mid-80’s which proved beyond her.

However, the handicapper has shown her some mercy since and following a drop to 72 she showed that her turn was just around the corner when staying on stoutly to finish just a half a length off Spring Glow again over 11 furlongs at the beginning of November.

That performance resulted in a 3lbs rise in the weights, but with a couple of these set to be at the sharp end from the start, this race should be run to suit and I fancy she can go one better here held up off the speed and outstaying her rivals.

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2.10 Thurles – Andys Flame (Each-Way)

Arguably the most difficult puzzle to solve of the day in either the UK or Ireland, but the kind of race I love to delve into.

Golden Spear has been the ‘forever gamble’ waiting to happen, not because of his racing record, but more to do with his astute trainer and any market move should be heeded, but alas it looks as though this now 10-year-old is a shadow of his former self having been beaten an aggregate of 110 lengths on his last four starts.

Still, this is just about as low as the now 109-rated veteran has been in the weights, but several others are readily preferred.

Down at the bottom of the weights, at least Magnor Glory has won a race, two outings back, but a

14lbs penalty readily put paid to a quick follow-up last time out. We probably haven’t seen the best of him or Palace Rock. Francis Casey’s charge ran well on both his final two starts on the level on turf off 79 and then followed that up when right in the mix for a long way back over timber at Listowel before coming to the end of his tether with a tired fall at the penultimate flight. While recent Navan winner Futurum Negem has solid claims despite a disconcertingly poor run returned to the level last time out.

But for a value each-way play I am going to have a wager on the lightly raced Andys Flame. The four-year-old was a huge eye catcher last time out when making late headway in a Fairyhouse maiden at a huge price. Furthermore, had he jumped the second last cleanly there is little doubt he would have been in the ‘three’. I am going to take a chance that he can take another step forward here, as he must do, and be involved at the business end.

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2.20 Fakenham – Lelantos

Moidore has certainly seen better days, but the now 12-year-old is down to a career low mark of 76 and could well outrun those odds. However, he is due to be 7lbs lower in the weights in the future and there are younger, more progressive rivals to play with here.

Top weight, The Knot Is Tied is worth a closer look having plied his trade in better races this season including a cracking eight and a half length third of 14 behind Uno Mas at Aintree. That was followed by a rather lack lustre run back down to two and a half miles at Uttoxeter, when he was in trouble very early on in that contest. However, a truly run three miles may not be his perfect set-up though and with Manofthemoment having a moderate record when fresh there is a strong argument in favour of supporting the Nicky Henderson trained rep.

It took the son of Presenting 10 races to finally get off the mark under rules when he stayed on stoutly off a mark of 97 at Southwell last month.

That narrow success ensured that the selection only went up a moderate 3lbs in the weights and although he is very much one of the lesser stars at the famous Seven Barrows yard, in receipt of 12lbs from the top weight he may well be good enough to follow up here.

2.30 Kempton – Inevitable Outcome

There are two competitive class four handicaps earlier on at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, but it is this class five event over six furlongs that really caught my eye.

There are no less than six course and distance winners in the field of 12 and the majority of them now figure off handy marks again. Airshow has been in cracking form in the second half of the flat season, both on the turf and on the all-weather, and has every chance off a rating of 77 despite his wide draw of nine.

But he may not be able to deal with the less exposed four-year-old selection. Inevitable Outcome is four from 17 on the all-weather and finally got the fast pace he needed to run out last time out at Wolverhampton.

Off the speed early on, the son of Ivawood began to make his move into the home turn and readily got the better of Stay Smart and his 11 other rivals readily. He looks capable of defying a 4lbs penalty especially as there looks like being plenty of pace on again in this low grade event especially as he has cracking form figures of 7113 at the track.

Finally a quick word on another of his rivals here, the frustrating Equitation. He started off the season with a superb two lengths third of 11 behind the classy Arecibo, but never really fulfilled the promise of that run through 2021, his best run subsequently being a close up fifth in a class three Doncaster handicap. He is dangerous here if on one of his rare going days and of course based on that Newmarket effort.

Paul Jacobs’ value plays:

1.30 Kempton – Crown Power
2.10 Thurles – Andys Flame (Each-Way)
2.20 Fakenham – Lelantos
2.30 Kempton – Inevitable Outcome

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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