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13:10 Uttoxeter – Taste The Fear
With only the odd scattered shower forecast through the day, this small field staying handicap chase looks at the mercy of good ground specialist TASTE THE FEAR. I was at the track earlier this year when this athletic looking stayer romped home on a sound surface in a 3m novice hurdle, followed by an equally impressive 2-and-three-quarter length success over Ask Henry at Market Rasen again on good ground.
His comeback run over timber at Worcester can be readily excused on two counts. Firstly, he lost two shoes during the race and the ground would have been soft enough for this nice moving sort. Add in the fact that he made a serious mistake at the sixth and I expect a big step forward here on his second start having been eased a pound by the handicapper for his seasonal debut run.
Of his six rivals, Bootlegger simply got going too late off a slack pace at Aintree last time out and off the same mark under Sean Quinlan the eight-year-old looks a big player, that’s if he gets the end-to-end ride he needs to bring his bottomless stamina into play.
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14:00 Exeter – White Moon
This looks a wide open staying handicap chase, with the top weight Young Wolf set to go well at a price returning to a right-handed track. A talented if rather inconsistent performer, a return to the form that he showed when third to Friends Don’t Ask at Uttoxeter two outings back would make him a big player here off the same handicap mark.
However, the top weight simply can’t be trusted to bounce back, and a better value wager could come in the form of the Colin Tizzard trained nine-year-old WHITE MOON. Rated as high as a mighty 143 when winning a novice chase two years ago, he subsequently lost his form and as a consequence, the handicapper has seemingly chucked him a real life line dropping our selection down to a rating of just 118!
A spell of hurdling last year didn’t seem to rekindle his ‘A’ game, but his last run over fences in March was a lot more promising, as it came when the majority of the yard was hugely out of form. It does require a large degree of loyalty to support him here, but with the stable once again back on-song – combined with his lowly rating – I am banking on a much improved performance.
14:20 Navan – Futurum Regem
I was tempted to row in with top weight Jimmy Jimmy in this big field staying handicap hurdle, as the best is almost certainly still to come from this very lightly raced six-year-old. The last time we saw this Gordon Elliot charge he sauntered to victory in an extended 2-and-a-half mile maiden hurdle at Punchestown 13 months ago.
A good stamina test on good ground looks to be his optimum set-up and I can see him pushing the selection, who is trying to give him a massive 25lbs here.
Despite being by Sir Prancealot out of a Desert Prince mare, Hugh Finegan’s charge FUTURUM REGEM has always looked as though he would be well served by a test of stamina. A strong stayer over a mile-and-a-half on the Flat, the five-year-old gelding has been found wanting for speed on several occasions over hurdles both over the minimum trip and an extended 2-and-a-quarter miles.
Stepped up radically in trip to 3m last time out at Thurles, he was ridden very conservatively by his young jockey and could never get competitive, finishing a never-nearer fourth of the 11 runners. With several entries in this field that like to be at the sharp end, I suspect this will be a healthy gallop and a career best outing is on the cards.
14:50 Navan – Run Wild Fred
At the back end of November, Navan is normally a really tough stamina test for those horses lining up in the 3m Troytown Chase, but this renewal has been turned on its head by the recent dry spell producing the prevailing good ground.
So much so that the entry at the beginning of the week hardly resembles the betting book now, and it affords a huge chance for one of the seven Gordon Elliot battalion entered. Such a mass entry from the yard suggests Elliot doesn’t have the one outstanding candidate, but I think he does!
RUN WILD FRED remains a maiden over fences, but has been highly tried in that sphere with his career best being a fine second to Freewheelin Dylan in the Irish Grand National in April. His one paced second to smart novice Cape Gentleman first time up last month should have blown away the cobwebs and although a mark of 145 is no giveaway, I fancy that this much better ground will suit him and he gets a tentative nod.
I will though be having a saver on the seven-year-old Mister Fogpatches, only one win from nine over the large obstacles himself. However, out of all the 17-race entry, this almost spring ground is going to suit him most of all.
The youngster could never get competitive from out the back in the Paddy Power Cork Grand National last month, but with Richard Deegan taking 3lbs off he now looks very nicely treated on the best of last season’s performances. The highlight of those runs was, of course, a cracking third of 22 in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. That’s why he is preferred to the likes of outsider Smoking Gun and Farclas.
Paul Jacobs tips summary:
13:10 Uttoxeter – Taste The Fear
14:00 Exeter – White Moon
14:20 Navan – Futurum Regem
14:50 Navan – Run Wild Fred
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