Horse Racing Tips: Matt Chapman’s best bets for ITV racing on Sunday

Fresh off another productive Saturday, Matt's back in the ring for another swing at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

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ITV show three of the big races at Longchamp Sunday starting with this Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac for juvenile fillies over 1m. Had to get away from RACLETTE here for Andre Fabre and Maxime Guyon. The unbeaten daughter f Frankel has won in soft ground twice at Deauville and Chantilly and she was really impressive last time. Could be a real Classic contender next season.



Now the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere which is for juvenile colts over 1m. Ebro River will love the ground but I don’t think he is truly top class. The one I like is for Andre Fabre once again in the shape of Ancient Rome. The son of War Front should hate the ground on breeding, but he’s won on heavy and is on a four-timer after being touched off on debut. The Group 3 win at Longchamp last time looked good and he ran on strongly that day which bodes well in the conditions.





This is the big one, the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 1m 4f. This is a vintage Arc. After failing to win in three starts as a two-year-old in 2018, Tarnawa started to improve the following year to win four races including the Blue Wind, Give Thanks and Blandford Stakes.

But it was in 2020 that Tarnawa came alive. Successes in the Group 1 Vermeille, Prix de l’Opera and then a magnificent victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf followed. They stamped Tarnawa as world class.

This season, with the Arc the only target, Tarnawa had a cosy comeback success before chasing home star St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes over a couple of furlongs shorter than today’s distance of a mile and a half. The daughter of Shamardal fought hard that day having been carried right across the track by the Aidan O’Brien-trained winner.

Taking on Tarnawa is the Derby hero Adayar, runaway dual Oaks heroine Snowfall, Irish Derby and St Leger victor Hurricane Lane plus multiple Classic heroine Love. Adayar and Snowfall were supplemented for 120,000 euros.

And then there is the raiding party for Japan, with Chrono Genesis – a nasty outside draw – and recent trial victor Deep Bond very capable. This is a field with strength in depth. Adayar has always looked good, and should have won the Lingfield Derby Trial before his runaway Derby romp. He went on to deny Mishriff and Love in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

Charlie Appleby’s runner attempts to become the first horse since Lammtarra in 1995 to win the Derby, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Arc. Enable completed the fillies’ equivalent when winning the Oaks in 2017.   Some think Adayar is better on faster ground, but I am not one of them.

No St Leger victor has banged in an Arc in the same year which might be against Hurricane Lane, although he’s far from a mug.


Snowfall looks to have plenty in her favour. Fillies and mares have a great record in the race, as do three-year-olds, and she has won over a mile and a half on three occasions, including two Classics. She is versatile ground-wise, and, while her defeat in the Prix Vermeille came as a shock, both Solemia and Treve bounced back from defeats in the same race to claim the Arc in 2012 and 2014 respectively. However, they were both four-year-olds.

Incidentally, of the last 20 winners, 11 were three-year-olds and seven were four-year-olds. As the oldest horses in the race, Tarnawa, Chrono Genesis and Broome will attempt to emulate Marienbard and Waldgeist by winning the race at the age of five. The last five-year-old mare to win the Arc was Corrida in 1937. Tarnawa and Chrono Genesis will attempt to end an 84-year drought.

Chrono Genesis is a monster on Japan, and she links in with European from via Mishriff, having chased home that horse home in the Sheema Classic at Meydan. Under Oisin Murphy the daughter of Bago has strong claims.

The statistics might be against my hopes, but my Arc 1-2-3 is: TARNAWA, Chrono Genesis and Hurricane Lane.


This is on Sky Sports Racing and is the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera over 1m2f. Breeders’ Cup Turf winner AUDARYA has a fantastic chance to win her first race of the season. The James Fanshawe runner is proven on testing ground and got back to form last time when just touched off by the re-opposing Grand Glory.

Audarya should be at her best now and with Ioritz Mendizabal on board can storm home with a late thrust. She was third in this last year.


The other Group 1 on Sky is the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp over 5f. Mudlark SUESA will be too strong in the closing stages here with everything in her favour. The Francois Rohaut runner was fantastic at Glorious Goodwood and things went against her on fast ground in the Nunthorpe. This is a decent race but she’s well unto winning getting weight from some of her rivals.

So best of luck and pray for Yeeehaaas. You hear me Paddy?


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