Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: 6 trends to note ahead of 2021 Longchamp race

We've taken a deep dive into the past to get a better steer on Sunday's big race.

Sottsass Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Longchamp 2020

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The field is confirmed. The draw has been done. Paddy’s traders have priced up the betting market. Who are you backing in Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?

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Before you take the plunge and put your money where your mouth is, it’s only sensible to arm yourself with as much knowledge as possible. We’ve taken a deep dive into the stats and facts from over the years and picked out six key trends that are worth noting. 

Distance

Arguably, the most basic factor at play for a runner to even enter into consideration. The last 10 winners of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe all previously triumphed over 1m 4f. Sealiway and Baby Rider both fall short in this category, although the latter was beaten by Bubble Gift by a nose in the Prix Niel.

Group 1 Form

It’s rare for a horse to land the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe without having already triumphed at Group 1 level. Solemia proved to be an exception to the rule in 2011 as her previous biggest success came in a Group 2. Mojo Star will need to buck the trend if he’s to triumph as the Epsom Derby and St Leger second’s only win came in a Class 3 maiden at Newbury. Alenquer, Baby Rider, Bubble Gift, Deep Bond and Raabihah have also yet to taste victory in a Group 1.

Age

Seven of the last 13 renewals have been won by horses aged three suggesting the Classic generation generally have the upper hand, perhaps thanks to the older horses having to carry more weight.

Tarnawa is prominent in Paddy’s betting market for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but five-year-olds don’t have the greatest record in the race, with just two runners in that age bracket triumphing since the turn of the century. If that wasn’t bad enough, the last time a five-year-old mare won the race was back in 1937!

Tarnawa-wins-at-Longchamp-2020

Girl Power

Seven of the last 10 winners have been fillies including double Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners Treve and Enable. A tick in the pro column for the likes of Snowfall and Love?

Favouritism

Only two horses have justified favouritism in the last 12 renewals – Sea The Stars (2009) and Enable (2017 and 2018). That’s not to say being prominent in the betting is a bad thing as the likes of Workforce (2010), Golden Horn (2015) and Sottsass (2020) all won at single-digit prices.

St Leger History

A St Leger winner has never doubled up in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in the same season so history really is against Hurricane Lane. The iconic Nijinsky, off the back of completing the Triple Crown, lost by a nose in 1970.

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