Horse Racing Tips: Frank Hickey’s 8 on a plate for ITV Racing on Saturday

Paddy's top racing trader guides you through the best of the action on the telly on Irish Oaks day.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

13:50 at Newbury – Movin Time

As the betting suggests, it’s a wide open renewal and you could make a case for pretty much everything. I’m going to give Movin Time another chance. He did a little bit too much early in the Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot when beaten 5 lengths in 5th and think getting on ground that is slightly easier would be no harm.

He looked a really improved performer when hacking up in a Newmarket maiden in May over 10f. He then beat Kemari senseless, who won a maiden and Queens Vase, on next two starts. I don’t think he is one to give up on just yet and Roger Varian did win this race in 2015 with a 3 year old in Intilaaq. In a wide open race I’d give Movin Time another chance.

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14:05 at Market Rasen – Red Force One (E/W)

I’m going to take on at a price, Red Force One, who actually won this in good style last year off 126 when trained by Paul Nicholls. It’s trained by Philip Kirby now and has only had one hurdles start for him, finishing a decent 6th of 22 in an Aintree handicap off 130 where Camprond was in 2nd that day, over 20 lengths ahead of him.

But Red Force One bolted up in a 4-runner race on the Flat in Ayr on his next start and last two starts have been in Class 2 events on the flat. Camprond is the obvious pick but, with Red Force One being well into double figures, I think he is worth taking a chance on each way.

14:25 at Newbury – Just Hubert (E/W)

Zeeband is the progressive, lightly raced one in the race. He comes in off a 8lb higher mark than his comfortable win in the Northumberland Vase. The return to turf is no negative and he looks sure to go well.

I’ve tried to make a case for one of my old favourites, Withhold, who won this in 2019 off 107 and runs here off 105 but his efforts this season have just been too bad to contemplate backing. The booking of Oisin Murphy is a positive though and he has been campaigned in Listed and Group races for the bulk of the last two years.

He could bounce back to form, but the one I’m going to go for at a big price – he’s not consistent at all – but it’s Just Hubert. He shaped really well on reappearance at Haydock on heavy ground, that may have not been ideal, when 3rd. I think that is fair form with the 2nd Rajinsky finishing 3rd in the Northumberland Plate, the 5th Future Investment was beaten a nose on next start at Ascot and the 8th Speed Boy was beaten a neck on his next two starts.

Just Hubert then disappointed twice in the Ascot Stakes and then the Northumberland Plate, but I’d forgive him the run at Newcastle. I’m pretty sure that he doesn’t enjoy the Tapeta surface up there as that was the second time in two starts there that he has badly disappointed.

He is not consistent but did win at Goodwood last season over 2m4f off 88 after an excellent 3 year old campaign. When he’s on form he’s capable of winning one and I think Tom Marquand has a pretty good record when riding him as well. At a double-figure price I’ll have a few bob each way on Just Hubert with Paddy paying four places.

14:40 at Market Rasen – Fire Away (E/W)

Captain Top Cat is favourite but I can’t have him off a mark of 147 as he won a Aintree handicap off 125 and then bolted up in two small field novice chases. He was running well in handicaps over hurdles but off marks in the mid 120s.

I’m going to go with one who gave us an awful big headache when a massive gamble at Musselburgh on debut for Laura Morgan off just 98 and that’s Fire Away. It then won the next two starts off 105 & 118 and was beaten by Morning Vicar at Perth.

Fire Away was back to winning ways at Carmel off 129 when winning easily again and it looked a very useful race for the track. He was an easy winner over hurdles a couple of weeks ago to leave him spot on for this.

15:00 at Newbury – Diligent Harry

I think the key to this race is pace and I think there’s very little on display here. I’m backing Adam Kirby to dictate from the front on Diligent Harry. Diligent Harry and Tabdeed are closely matched on their running in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last month when the selection was 3/4 of a length in front of Tabdeed but now he’s 2 lbs better off.

Diligent Harry ran down the middle of the track in that race and don’t think that was the place to be on the day, as there definitely looked to be an advantage on being on the stand-side rail. Also, they went slightly to hard in front that day too and Diligent Harry was up there most of the way, so could upgrade his effort slightly

Tabdeed won this last year but does need a strong pace to aim at and might not get that here. I can’t see too much pace, there’s lots of hold-up type horses, so Kirby might decide to make it on Diligent Harry and he could make this very tactical, as most of the field need to be held up.

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15:10 at Market Rasen – Giovani Change

I really like Giovani Change here. It was a bumper winner on debut for Emmett Mullins, then left for Mark Walford and couldn’t win in maiden company over hurdles but bolted up on first two starts in handicaps. It won by 7 lengths off 114 over 2m4f and by 13l off 121 over 2m7f both at Market Rasen.

Giovani Change was then dropped back to 2m4f at Aintree then but jumping out to his right cost him when only beaten a half length by Proschema and Sebastopol that day.

Sebastopol has been touched off in 2nd on both his next two starts, 5th Shetland Bus won two starts later, 6th Black Mischielf won next time out at Netwon Abbott, 7th No Comment beaten a short head next time out and the 11th Goobinator won a York handicap on the flat two starts later. Back to a right-handed track now, and back up in trip, I think he’s capable of winning off a mark of 132.

15:25 at the Curragh – Willow (Without Snowfall)

I like Willow. Last year she looked very progressive. She was behind Nicest at Leopardstown and then got off the mark there in October in her third start. I was keeping a close eye on her and she was a little disappointing at Navan when favourite for a Listed race and then again in the Blue Wind Stakes, she went off joint favourite, and was third.

It looked like she was getting the hang of things when she won a Listed race at Naas last time out. Look, she’s no chance of turning over Snowfall. None. But, Nicest and Divinely, I don’t think they’re top class at all and Willow seems to be getting her act together.

Willow is a decent price with us in the betting without Snowfall and I thought it was interesting that Seamie Heffernan’a on her rather than Divinely. That might be a small hint.

15:40 at Newbury – Gubbass (E/W)

This is a really good renewal when you think two of them are coming from excellent performances at Ascot. Vintage Clarets was 3rd in the Coventry & Chipotle won the Windsor Castle so they set a high standard and will be tough to beat.

But the pace appears to be drawn high and the main protagonists are all drawn high as well so I’m just going to give Gubbass a chance. I think he’s likely to drift from his current price so might be worth an each way play here. Could go out to double figures. That might be because whoever priced it up likes Gubbass. Not saying it was me or anything!

He was well backed on his debut at Leicester back in April over 5f on good to firm ground. The manner that he came through to win was quite impressive and while the 2nd hasn’t run since, the 3rd did win his next two before finding the Coventry too hot to handle.

Timefigure was quite decent and the sectional was very fast in comparison to Mo Celita who was winning a seller over 6f on the card and went on to win four in a row. It might be concerning that he hasn’t run since but Hannon has won this 3 times in the last 7 years (all fillies though) and Gubbas looks 1st string with Sean Levey up. If he gets out to close to 10/1, which isn’t impossible, he’d make each way appeal.

Frank’s Saturday tips

13:50 at Newbury – Movin Time
14:05 at Market Rasen – Red Force One (E/W)
14:25 at Newbury – Just Hubert (E/W)
14:40 at Market Rasen – Fire Away (E/W)
15:00 at Newbury – Diligent Harry
15:10 at Market Rasen – Giovani Change
15:25 at the Curragh Willow (Without Snowfall)
15:40 at Newbury – Gubbass (E/W)

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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