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The key to this may be the race here a fortnight ago in which AISH made all the running to beat Minhaaj by just over a length. The runner-up is 4lb better off now but the winner appeared to score with something in hand and her record of 2-2 over C&D shows just how effective she is under these conditions. Boom The Groom and Buy Me Back have the form to figure but significant rain may be a problem for both.
Vandad sets the standard and his latest effort at Sandown was a good one, but his record of 0-17 is a concern and makes him look vulnerable to an unexposed rival. Perhaps DIAMONDS DANCING will be the one to take advantage, having run so well on her Newcastle debut. She may have just needed the run on last month’s Windsor return.
It’s interesting that connections are persevering with Baron Slick, who has been off for so long since his debut, but this looks a golden opportunity for FLAME OF FREEDOM who has shown plenty of ability in both starts and will never have a better chance to get off the mark.
Much will depend on what the weather does. If the ground stays on the quick side Contingency Fee would have strong claims, having won three times here and been in good form lately. However, if the weather forecast is right and the rain arrives then ELTHAM PALACE would have a good chance of getting off the mark, having run so well on soft ground at Windsor last time.
Provided there isn’t too much rain Wootton Creek would have to be considered down in grade, while Spanish Hustle is worth keeping an eye on back on the Flat with this trip likely to suit. However, KELMSCOTT gives the impression he has a bigger effort in him, and the forecast rain won’t do his chances any harm.
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The consistent Strawberry Jack would have a solid chance provided there isn’t too much rain, while Alibaba could be a threat if left alone in front. However, it’s hard to get away from ARCTIC EMPEROR who comes into this bidding for a hat-trick and he may well still have plenty of improvement left. He is certainly versatile as regards ground.
Few look solid in this. Six Til Twelve handles soft ground well should the rain materialise, but it could also put too much strain on his stamina. Crystal Carole would have a shout now back off her last winning mark especially if it stays dry, but this looks a good chance for FINVARRA (nap) to extend his fine run of form over C&D. He has shown that he can handle different types of ground.
If the rain stays away Confrerie and Thomas Lanfiere would be near the top of the list, but the vote goes to HARLEQUIN ROSE who is back off her last winning mark and is weighted to reverse April’s C&D running with Thomas Lanfiere. It’s worth noting that she twice ran well with cut in the ground in her younger days.
Tips for Brighton today
- Horse Racing tips: Through the card at Downpatrick on Tuesday with Timeform
- Horse Racing tips: Our trader’s deadly double for Tuesday’s action
- Horse Racing tips: Timeform’s 8 best bets at Beverley on Tuesday