Horse Racing Tips: Paddy Desmond’s 5 smart picks for Thursday’s ITV Racing

Paddy Power's Head of Racing takes us through the action at Newmarket and Carlisle on Thursday.

Newmarket-July-course

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Newmarket 13:50 – Yibir

I’m going to oppose the favourite Stowell and go with Yibir. I actually feel that Yibir should be the favourite as he has form that ties in with a lot of Group 1 horses. Lone Eagle almost won the Irish Derby and his run at Sandown three starts back had him close up behind English Derby winner Adayar and Royal Ascot winner Alenquer in it.

At Chester, he hung quite badly, but he has been gelded since. If you use Wordsworth as a form line between Stowell and Yibir, you’d argue that Yibir should have the beating of him.

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Carlisle 14:05 – Velocistar

Velocistar‘s main threat is probably Lady Celia and Fox Hill, who are both suited by this five furlong trip. Gometra Ginty is probably better over seven furlongs so Velocistar is solid enough to get behind over this five furlong trip.

Newmarket 14:25 – Project Dante

Project Dante was a little bit unlucky at Ascot in the Norfolk Stakes behind Perfect Power and the form has been boosted BY the runner-up that day, Go Bears Go, wining the Railway Stakes at the Curragh last month on Derby day. Project Dante deserves to be favourite.

Eldrickjones and Ebro River both came up the middle of the track at Royal Ascot and that wouldn’t have suited either as there was a bit of a bias towards the stand side. Eldrickjones was pretty impressive in finishing second. Project Dante is probably the one to beat, but it isn’t a big fancy for me.

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Newmarket 15:00 – Akkeringa (each-way)

I like Boomshalaa but I’d ideally want a bit more cut in the ground. If there’s more rain, I’d be all in on Boomshalaa. When you’ve got a race like this and Paddy Power is paying 6 places, you should be looking somewhere further down the market and I like the look of Akkeringa. He won at the July course a couple of weeks ago and he’s a pretty good each-way bet.

Newmarket 15:35 – Sir Ron Priestley

I wouldn’t say it’s a penalty kick for Al Aasy but he definitely deserves to be an odds-on favourite. It’s not guaranteed that Al Aasy will win and you can make a case for Sir Ron Priestley. The way I’d approach this race would be the betting without market and I’d be very keen on Sir Ron Priestley to beat Highest Ground and the rest of them in this race.

If you drew a line between Sir Ron Priestley and Pyledriver, there isn’t a lot between them and Sir Ron Priestley wouldn’t have handled the softer ground at Ascot. I thought a drop back to 1m 4f would suit him so maybe Sir Ron Priestley each-way (just two places with the 5 runners) in a or a straight forecast of Al Aasy to beat Sir Ron Priestley.

Paddy’s Thursday tips:

Newmarket 13:50 – Yibir
Carlisle 14:05 – Velocistar
Newmarket 14:25 – Project Dante
Newmarket 15:00 – Akkeringa
Newmarket 15:35 – Sir Ron Priestley

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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