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ALARM CALL made her debut here back in September and stayed on nicely to grab fourth place, even if she was plenty green at the start of the race. She took a big step forward the last day when winning her maiden at Navan and her mark of 89 looks workable in a race where not too many look to have much in hand of the handicapper.
The conditions of this race seem like they suit REAL FORCE, who looks to have improved with racing. He’s versatile ground wise, so the heavy going shouldn’t pose a problem. This doesn’t look the strongest of races, so he should take plenty of beating with Chris Hayes in the saddle – who is in fine form at the moment.
TEREBELLUM has a massive chance in the Filly & Mare Turf. Having run over a mile on her last three starts, she is stepping back up in trip and the fact she has shown the speed to run a head second in an open Group 1 mile race like the Queen Anne Stakes will be a huge advantage here.
She is tactically versatile having been held up and made the running during the season. She returns to a quick surface for the first time since her easy Group 2 win at Newmarket back in June. She looks ideally suited to the test of this race and with Paddy Power paying four places she looks a cracking bet.
Surprisingly this is a race Aidan O’Brien has never won, but he should put that right with PEACEFUL. She had great early season form over both a mile, when winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas, and beyond when finishing an unlucky third in the Prix de Diane. She’s been brought back steadily from a break, her run at Newmarket can be glossed over courtesy of the heavy ground.
She’s fresher than most of these, fits the ideal profile and is ready to run a big race. Three of the last four winners of this have been European three-year-olds and I reckon Peaceful will follow suit.
Despite the big European challenge, the Breeders’ Cup Mile looks like one for the home team. IVAR was electric when winning Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes over course and distance last time from a similar draw, beating one of today’s main rivals Raging Bull. With conditions to suit the Brazilian-bred, a decent pace set up and an extra place on offer here, Ivar looks a great bet.
A competitive field, but those around TOM’S D’ETAT in the market have questions to answer. Improbable has been hammering small fields off soft trips and needs to prove his mettle, while Maximum Security is struggling to adapt to his new trainer. Authentic needs to lead and will ‘dog it’ if not clear on the lead, elsewhere Tiz the Law had no excuses whatsoever in the derby when beaten by Authentic.
Tom’s d’Etat was in great form earlier on in the year and lost all chance nearly coming down out of the stalls when last seen at Saratoga, but still ran well. He’s been put away for this, as he goes well fresh and is a horse that always shows up. He represents by far the most solid option than the rest here.
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