Horse Racing tips: 9/2 NAP among Paddy Power trader’s Breeders’ Cup picks

Sean O'Sullivan is backing Tom DEtat at Keeneland on Saturday [10.18pm]

By / Horse Racing News, Horse Racing Tips / 3 years ago

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Paddy Power International Racing Trader Sean O’Sullivan has cast his eye over Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup card at Keeneland.

Speaking on the latest episode of our twice-weekly From The Horse’s Mouth podcast, Sean has selected eight of his best bets to track as the two-day carnival comes to a close.

5.02pm – Bells The One

We know a lot about Gamine – she was the Kentucky Oaks favourite and the race didn’t go her way. Every race she’s been in, she’s led – but she’s not going to lead here so for the first time she’s going to be sitting back on the rail, getting kicked back from faster horses so I’ve got no idea how she will react to that. It could be hard to work a trip for her too if she gets boxed in.

The one I like is BELLS THE ONE. This was a really good winner of the Derby Day Distaff at Churchill Downs on her last start, and is going to sit back and leave them at it early before coming with a late run. She nailed Serengeti Empress, who re-oposes here, that time and there is more pace pressure on Serengeti Empress here which will soften her up in the lead. I’m hoping Bells The One can fly down the outside and pip them all.

5.39pm – Big Runnuer

There’s a lot of fence-sitting at the top of the market with this one! Whoever gets the best trip wins the race, as this is a pretty evenly-matched bunch of sprinters. I don’t think there are any stand-out superstars. Got Stormy was really interesting this year, cutting back from a mile. She’s really good but is giving some fast horses a big lead to chase down.

The one I think is most likely to win is probably Leinster, but we know what he is. He’s pretty exposed and is going to run to a good level, but if I was to have an each-way squeak I would try BIG RUNNUER. He is only making his eighth career start and ran some really nice numbers in California. He’s drawn in Stall 1 – he can be a little slow out the gates but once he gets going he is very fast, so if he can grab the lead on the rail I don’t think there is too much to take him on and he might just be able to last home.

 

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6.18pm – Knicks Go

This is not a race that I have a very strong opinion on, as there are a lot of moving parts here. I would chance that KNICKS GO backs his recent good effort up, as if he does then he wins comfortably and I will take that at around 9/2. If that happens, then I’m very happy with those odds, but other than the I’m am okay to sit back and watch.

6.57pm – Cayenne Pepper

Rushing Falls is one of my favourite horses, as she’s really tough, always runs her race and usually wins! The trip here will be as far as she’s ever gone though, and she’s a very fast animal – she’s a miler if you want her to be, so I have an issue with her getting home here. It’s a big field and there will be plenty coming at her.

Mean Mary is a good US horse that has been running well this year but she has been setting some really slow fractions off the lead and just kicking clear. She will probably have to go faster than she’s ever gone here. Of the Europeans, Peaceful is bouncing back towards her French Classic form and could take all the beating but it was a really bad run at Newmarket on her last start. I know they blamed they heavy ground but you’re really taking her on trust.

The one European I really do like is Jessica Harrington’s CAYENNE PEPPER. She’s drawn in Stall 14 but that shouldn’t be a problem as she has plenty of tactical speed and can just tack over into third or fourth. Her form reads behind Tarnawa and Magical, and both of them would be clear favourites if they were here, while 9 1/2f will be absolutely perfect for her. She’s been lined up for this race for some time, having skipped Champions Day and skipped Arc Day, so she ticks a lot of boxes at what will be a fair price.

 

7.36pm – Yaupon

Last year’s winner Volatile would beat this field on the bridle, and there are a lot of horses out here that we know what they are. They’re solid sprinters but not superstars. The one horse that might be something special is YAUPON and, giving you’re still getting just over 2/1, I’d be happy to take a chance on him. He’s looked really good in his races, but he’s not a flashy sprinter. He has to be asked to do it, and I think there is more there if they get to the bottom of him. If he can clear this field early he will be very hard to peg back, and I don’t see much going with him. This is one of the better favourites on the card.

8.15pm – Digital Age

I think Kameko is going to be unlucky here again, because he is best over 9f on a nice straight galloping mile where he can wind it up from the 3f pole. I don’t think the tight oval here is going to suit him, and UK and Irish runners have an awful record in this race – one win from the last 75 attempts. Kameko is a typical European horse that comes over in good form after the likes of York and Newmarket but is faced with a completely different test. They don’t get in position early, so they’re off the bridle early and it’s race over.

I think Lope Y Fernandez is interesting, having run some nice races over 6f and 7f. He has some of that tactical speed which enables him to get into position and Frankie Dettori rides over Ryan Moore which is no issue whatsoever. I don’t think Circus Maximus has any chance here, especially being drawn in Stall 1, because I don’t think he is good enough to lead, so the one I’ve landed with is DIGITAL AGE for Chad Brown. He seems to be a new horse these days and his last two runs have been really good. There is a suspicion he prefers 9f to 8f but I was really impressed with the way he picked up Factor This on his last start at Churchill Downs. Factor This has gone on and won really impressively since then so if Digital Age is not too far back as they turn for home, I don’t think there’s going to be much finishing stronger than him. At around the 10/1 mark, he represents a very solid each-way play.

You’re just taking Siskin on trust. He was very well-fancied going into his last race in France and there was talk he was going to run at Champions Day after but they’ve obviously taken their time with him. He’s a bit of a devil in the gate and if he’s acting up again here and lets them go then it’s race over. You’ll know your medicine quick enough here, but if he can get the break, get travelling and behave himself then he could well be one that is suited to this because he is a horse that has devastating turn of foot when seen to best effect.

9.33pm – Mogul

With respect to the US representation, this race is coming back to Europe with the quality we have sent over. I was disappointed with Magical at Ascot, as I thought she had everything in her favour that day, although she didn’t get the best of rides from Ryan Moore. With a small field here, I don’t see that happening again. But it was a tough race on really heavy ground just three weeks ago and that could leave its mark.

Tarnawa is obviously coming here in great form, and has been targeting it since the Arc so has had a nice break, but the one that dips in and out of form is MOGUL. He very much dipped into form when he got proper fast ground for the first time at Longchamp on Arc trials day, and from that moment I think they decided they were going to pull away and wait for the fast ground and in America. I have no issue with Pierre-Charles Boudot keeping the ride – he’s probably the best rider in the world at the moment. And the time of that trial was really quick, while the form has worked out really well. This horse has been targeting the race so that’s the one I would side on between the three at the top of the market.

 

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10.18pm – Tom DEtat (NAP)

I don’t really like Improbable, as all his runs have come in small fields when he’s got really soft, perfect trips. There is a real suspicion that he is just a flat-track bully and when he comes to a race where he faces a bit of adversity, he could chuck in the towel. He did it a couple of times last year – maybe he’s improved – but I’m not so sure.

Authentic has his quirks, and I think he needs to lead. If he’s not in the lead, he has no chance. You saw when Swiss Skydiver went up the rail in the Preakness, he had the whole straight to go by but he was just looking at her. If he gets the lead, he will be tough to pass and he beat Tiz The Law in the Kentucky Derby – I think that is just what Tiz The Law is, and there is no improvement coming out of him.

So the one I’ve landed on is TOM DETAT. He’s coming off a three-month lay-off but he goes really well fresh, and that is by design. The trainer is very bullish and he was last seen at Saratoga behind Improbable. He lost all chance when he fell out the gate and lost four lengths but still ran reasonably well. His form earlier on in the year was really, really good and he’s as consistent as they come. He just shows up and always runs his race. He’s tactically very versatile and should sit off this field then pick them up late.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

Sean O’Sullivan’s Breeders’ Cup bet summary – Saturday, November 7

5.02pm – Bells The One
5.39pm – Big Runnuer
6.18pm – Knicks Go
6.57pm – Cayenne Pepper
7.36pm – Yaupon
8.15pm – Digital Age
9.33pm – Mogul
10.18pm – Tom DEtat (NAP)

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