Breeders’ Cup tips: 12/1 punt among US racing expert Mike Joyce’s best bets

Mike Joyce thinks Halladay could light up the Breeders' Cup on Saturday [8.15pm]

By / Horse Racing News, Horse Racing Tips / 3 years ago

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TVG’s Mike Joyce has taken a look at Saturday’s packed Breeders’ Cup card at Keeneland, picking out a host of top tips to track.

Speaking on the latest episode of our twice-weekly From The Horse’s Mouth podcast, the US racing expert has identified a whopping total of 10 selections who could do the business for punters.

5.02pm – Come Dancing

I think Gamine is really good, but I’m not sold and I really don’t think this is the fastest bunch. I really do like COME DANCING. I know she’s six, and I don’t know if she’s capable of running the kind of race she ran in the Distaff Stakes at Aqueduct back in 2019 where she won by seven lengths over 7f, but last time out she ran a brilliant race in the Honorable Miss Handicap – probably the best race we’ve seen from her in over a year. Trainer Carlos Martin backed off at that point because he had her where he wanted her, and she can run that kind of race fresh.

Now at aged six, with a mare, sometimes when you get them going in the right direction they get right really well, really quickly but if you get them going in the wrong direction they can be off form for a while. After the Gallant Bloom in 2019 she was off form for a while, and she is just now beginning to climb up to that peak so if the Honorable Miss performance was as signal of her next race, she wins here. If that race was her peak, then it’s gonna be tough at aged six to take on some of these young guns but at around 8/1 she gets my pick.

5.39pm – Wet Your Whistle

I like Big Runnuer, having watched and covered every one of his races in California. He’s just really good. It took him a while to get his racing debut, waiting until he was four, but he won his maiden and then hacked away at his weight allowance until he got into Stakes company but then ‘boom, boom’ he ran two really big races.

I think Imprimis is as good as he’s ever been in his career, but the price that I will give you is WET YOUR WHISTLE at around 15/1 for Michael Trombetta. Last time out in the Turf Sprint Invitational at Belmont Park he won but it wasn’t the trip this horse wants. His previous three wins were all from a stalking trip or a little off the pace, while last time out he got the lead because it was there for the taking. He was just keen that day and jockey Jose Ortiz just said ‘go for it’, but that’s not the trip he wants or needs yet he still won.

And he ran as fast a race as he’d run in about five or six starts so you’re seeing this five-year-old back to top form at his physical peak. He can sit close, he can finish, if the lead is there for the taking he can do that so at 15/1 Wet Your Whistle is the horse that I’m really looking at.

 

6.18pm – War Of Will/Sharp Samurai

I don’t know what to do with Knicks Go because if he runs the race he did last time out, he’s five lengths better than everybody else. But it was such a sudden burst onto the scene off of a lay-up that he is just crying out for a regression. If he runs that race he’s the best horse here but he’s never run that race before and after 16 starts, to come back and run a new top off a month’s res… there are a lot of questions there.

I think this is a weak field and I don’t love Complexity, although if he wins I will not be surprised. I’m just not a fan because his two dirt wins were one-turn mile affairs. This horse is a one-turn mile horse, and his best numbers in those are at 7f. He’s been on two turns once before and he petered out, so I just don’t like that.

I’m looking at WAR OF WILL as a possible as he gets back to the dirt. He was a really nice animal on the dirt as a three-year-old then they turned him into a turf horse this year. Three turf starts have been kind to him and he’s rounding into form, while you now put him back on a surface where you know he’s had success… we’ll see what kind of price we get at post time.

 

My other squeak is SHARP SAMURAI. His last dirt effort was in the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes and the only horse that finished in front of him that day was Maximum Security. He ran a race that would absolutely win this. He’s been a turf horse all his career but they’ve put him in this, and Sharp Samurai at 15/1 is another one I would pay attention to.

6.57pm – Rushing Fall/Peaceful

I think RUSHING FALL is too strong for everyone, but outside of her the Europeans have a chance. I always end up betting against Rushing Fall and I always end up tearing up tickets because she never seems to lose.

 

With that caveat, I will say that I do like PEACEFUL a lot and I can forgive that last race. You don’t have to dig deep into that trainer’s bag of excuses to explain the effort at Newmarket – it was a heavy turf course and it will be anything but a heavy turf course here. I really like Peaceful, and especially because there is going to be money going in different directions from her. I also like Cayenne Pepper and I think the Europeans do have a shot, but only if Rushing Fall doesn’t run her race. She’s so good, and she can win in a multitude of ways so it’s just so hard to get around her.

7.36pm – Firenze Fire

As far as Breeders’ Cup Sprints go, this is one of the slowest groups we’ve seen in the race. It’s not the toughest Sprint, and I’ve been impressed with CZ Rocket in California. I think he’s a really nice gelding and he’s the big horse in the sprint. But I fell in love with FIRENZE FIRE for the way his numbers came up. He’s been brilliant this year and he’s running numbers that, even if he runs back to that fourth-place finish in the Alfred G Vanderbilt Handicap where he lost to Volatile, Whitmore and Mind Control, that will be competitive.

I’ll let Yaupon prove me wrong. He’s only three and hasn’t got enough seasoning. Yes, he’s been brilliant on his four starts and has the talent to do it but I want to believe that seasoning and having a foundation means something. I know that for a sprinter its a different story to a horse trying to get 9f or 10f but, as flash as he’s been, I will take my money elsewhere. I’m not a believer in Diamond Oops, and never have been, which means I’ve been right nine out of 16 times.

This will be a race where I throw in as many as I can afford, and I will take a stand against some. In those sequential wagers I’m going to opt for a coverage bet because I don’t think it’s the strongest bunch.

 

8.15pm – Halladay (NAP)

The draw for Raging Bull is brutal, so my top pick is going to be HALLADAY for Todd Pletcher. I really like the way this colt runs. He’s a horse that can get the lead, but what really good Grade 1 horses have is the ability to run fast interior fractions without expending too much energy, and he fits it to a tee. When you watch him get the lead, he can carve out an opening quarter of 23.46 and he’s doing it within himself – he’s not all-out – and doing it with a nice fluid stride. He’s everything you want from a frontrunner. But if he doesn’t get the lead he can still track and pounce. Is there a question of class? Yes, a little bit but he won the Fourstardave Handicap last time out.

I love the way Halladay moves. He’s a fast horse, but not really a turf miler. You don’t want to be making up too much ground, especially with these tight turns as its a crowded field, and I think we’ll see double-digit odds on this horse as they go to the gate.

8.54pm – Harvest Moon

Swiss Skydiver and Monomoy Girl is the matchup that everyone wants to see, and it’s appropriately billed that way so this race will most likely be won by one of those two. The horse that I really like, although I don’t think she is good enough yet, is HARVEST MOON. The first time she stepped foot on the dirt you knew she was going to be a Grade 1 winner. She carries herself with such class, and has such a good way of going. She’s such a fantastic filly, but I don’t know if she’s good enough yet. She hasn’t run a number yet that shows she can run with Swiss Skydiver, but if she hits her potential she is going to be something special. She has that much talent but she is a late developer – she didn’t debut until June of her three-year-old year. I like her a lot and am rooting for her – I will have some money on her, but I understand who this race goes through.

Swiss Skydiver is a fantastic filly, Monomoy Girl is a fantastic mare and if it’s those two that hit the wire together I’ll root them on but it’s Harvest Moon I like the most.

 

9.33pm – Arklow

This race is either going to the top three European horses in the market – Magical, Tarnawa and Mogul – or it will be won by ARKLOW. Brad Cox is so bullish on his charge here. Going back a year, he won the Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont en route to the Breeders’ Cup Turf and then, when asked to face these big horses, was nowhere. That was a different year, and he’s come back on a campaign that has clearly been pointed to this event. His race last time out was the best race he has ever run in his life, and that was on September 12 so he has plenty of time to recover. Brad Cox is going to have a good Breeders’ Cup – he has quickly become one of the best trainers in the US – and I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say he likes Arklow more than any other runner he has going. I’m taking my money in that direction, and I know that I’m taking on monsters from across the Atlantic, but if it’s not going to be them then it’s going to be Arklow.

10.18pm – Authentic

There is a chance that Improbable is just better than everyone else. If he hadn’t run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he would be taking votes for Horse of the Year. His speed figures suggest it, the way he wins suggest it, the horses he beat suggest it, and that might be the case. But he has stiff competition from his own stable. I was not a believer in AUTHENTIC going into the Kentucky Derby. I though Authentic was going to top out at 1m8f, and he not only proved me wrong but he had to hold off the best horse in the world Tiz The Law to do so. He had every chance to go by and was never going to do it.

He then ran faster in the Preakness Stakes when he lost to Swiss Skydiver, which I know is counter-intuitive to what you saw with your eyes, but the ground he covered on the outside, having to run further than anyone else… he got beaten by a superstar filly, but he covered way more ground than her that day. He actually improved from Derby to Preakness, despite losing, and I have completely flip-flopped on him.

I’m off Maximum Security – I just don’t think he’s as good as these other horses – while I don’t think Global Campaign has a chance. I’m not a Higher Power guy while Title Ready is just filling out the field. I have my questions about Tom DEtat but if he runs his Stephen Foster Stakes performance he will be right there with it – same with By My Standards.

Tacitus is the play against. He is brilliantly beautiful and talented. Checks every box, except the win. He never seems to get the job done in Grade 1s.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

Mike Joyce’s Breeders’ Cup bet summary – Saturday, November 7

5.02pm – Come Dancing
5.39pm – Wet Your Whistle
6.18pm – War Of Will/Sharp Samurai
6.57pm – Rushing Fall/Peaceful
7.36pm – Firenze Fire
8.15pm – Halladay (NAP)
8.54pm – Harvest Moon
9.33pm – Arklow
10.18pm – Authentic

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