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Paddy Power trader Conor Murphy has previewed the opening day of the Breeders’ Cup meeting at Keeneland, Kentucky.
Speaking to Paddy Power TV’s Justin Kenny, our man has picked out his best bets for the Juvenile Turf, the Juvenile Fillies and the Juvenile Fillies Turf races set to take place on Friday.
Check out the video below to see Conor talk through his selections.
8.10pm – Cadillac
I think the European’s should have this race between them, with Aidan O’Brien represented with Battleground and Jessica Harrington represented by CADILLAC. I’m not massively keen on any of the US horses at all, and although Mutasaabeq is probably going to be the favourite I just can’t have him. He had everything go his way the last day and it still wasn’t really good enough.
Battleground is obviously going to have a lot of eyes on him because his dame Found won a Breeders’ Cup race herself at Keeneland. But the form is looking very windy, and its taken so many knocks since he’s been out. If you look at the Goodwood race, the Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes in July, the only horse to win out of it won a maiden at 1/4.
The Chesham Stakes at Ascot is a similar story, with the only horse to win out of it winning a maiden at 2/9 and has then been pretty poor at Graded Stakes company.
The one I’m really keen on is Cadillac, and I think he should be favourite. He is far and away the most likely winner ahead of Battleground and comes here with the best form in the field.
You only have to go back to his win on Irish Champions Weekend when he beat Van Gogh really comfortably – Van Gogh has gone on to win a Group 1 really impressively just a couple of weeks ago in France.
The Dewhurst run wasn’t awful for Cadillac, but he just got stopped at a crucial stage which wasn’t ideal for him and I think quicker ground will help him massively. It was just softer than what he wanted at Newmarket and the Dewhurst is the best form we’ve seen among the juveniles. This is arguably a weaker race and conditions are going to suit him, having shown at Leopardstown that he goes around a left-handed bend no problem whatsoever. He will take a lot of beating.
8.50pm – Vequist
It’s the smallest field of the entire weekend but it’s probably one of the trickiest races to call. You have four really impressive Group 1 winners coming in here clashing and three completely different bits of form. A lot of this will revolve around Princess Noor – she’s going to be a huge talking horse all weekend and she represents
Bob Baffert who can get two-year-old horses to do incredible things. There’s no getting away from how visually impressive she is but the Southern California form just looks really weak. She is by far and away the best of them but she’s just achieved so little in her three starts so far and given that she is likely favourite you just have to take her on.
Simply Ravishing was really good last time over course and distance, when she was allowed to dictate pace in front, but I just don’t think she’s going to get her way again. I would focus on the New York form and Dayoutoftheoffice looks really good – she beat Vequist last time – but I wouldn’t be surprised if VEQUIST got a lot closer and maybe even turned things around.
She won a Group 1 before herself and going around two bends here as opposed to the one at Belmont, and the extra half furlong, is going to suit her a lot. I don’t think she was quite at her best in the Frizette Stakes behind Dayoutoftheoffice, but I would be worried about the stamina for Dayoutoftheoffice.
It’s not just about the extra half furlong – going around two bends is such a big test for these horses. Vequist is definitely going to be the value play against the top three in the market.
9.30pm – Plum Ali
There are a lot of reputations on the line here, and I think this race is going to be defined by the speed they go because there are a lot of quick horses who want to be forward. Miss Amulet and Campanelle are both stepping up from really good six-furlong races and I don’t think their speed will be blunted. They won’t be leading but they won’t be far off.
Aunt Pearl is likely to be favourite, and she is another with a huge reputation. The problem with her is that she has never seen another rival. She has just been ‘point and shoot’ on her first two starts, but with so much pace pressure it’s a real worry that those kind of horses can’t keep it up. Campanelle’s form in the Prix Morny just hasn’t worked out. It looked really good at the time but its taken so many knocks since she’s been off the track so I think it’s worth taking a stab at PLUM ALI here.
She is unbeaten and won a good trial the last day, beating a good filly of Chad Brown’s – Editor At Large – and she opposes again here and will be one suited by the pace. But I just can’t find any holes in Plum Ali, and I can’t find a negative. She will suit off the pace and travel into the race really well. Last time out she actually put a speed figure as good as anything in this race so I’m not worried about her quality at all.
She showed how uncomplicated she is, and she’s the solid one compared to the front two and I’m really keen to take them on with her.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
Keeneland bet summary – Friday, November 6
8.10pm – Cadillac
8.50pm – Vequist
9.30pm – Plum Ali
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