Breeders’ Cup: Four races where Europe’s raiders hold all the aces

The boffins at Timeform reckon these four can fly the flag for Europe Stateside at the mega-bucks meeting.

KeenelandOct20

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 years ago

Friday 20:10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf  

The top six on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are all trained in Europe, so this looks like an excellent opportunity for the raiders to register a victory.

Sealiway is at the head of the ratings following an eight-length win in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc weekend. However, there is a doubt about the substance to that form as the likely favourite, St Mark’s Basilica, was a non-runner and his remaining rivals seemingly failed to handle the heavy ground.

Aidan O’Brien has won this race four times and his representative, BATTLEGROUND, looks the one to side with.

Battleground – the first foal of Found, who, incidentally, won the Breeders’ Cup Turf at this course in 2015 – won the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot just ten days after finishing fifth on his racecourse debut at Naas. He took another big step forward when winning the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood the following month, scoring with more in hand than a winning margin of two lengths would suggest, and he remains an extremely exciting prospect.

Cadillac produced a slightly underwhelming performance when fifth in a strong edition of the Dewhurst last time but his earlier form is solid and he also has a good chance.

Friday 21:30 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies  

The Europeans don’t hold such outstanding claims in the Juvenile Fillies Turf as they do in the colts’ equivalent, but there are still five British or Irish representatives, with MOTHER EARTH looking the pick of the bunch.

Mother Earth – who is trained by Aidan O’Brien – has seemingly been held in high regard from the outset as she was sent off at just 100/30 for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot when still a maiden. She was a promising third in the Albany before winning a Group 3 at Naas but threatened to go the wrong way, putting up a disappointing effort in the Moyglare.

She bounced back with a career-best effort when third in the Fillies’ Mile, however, relishing the step up in trip, and only Campanelle can boast a stronger piece of form. Wesley Ward’s Prix Morny winner Campanelle has yet to race beyond six furlongs and has stamina to prove, however, so Mother Earth could offer value at the prices.

Saturday 20:15 – Breeders’ Cup Mile  

The British and Irish don’t have a good record in the Breeders’ Cup Mile – only Expert Eye has won for them since Ridgewood Pearl scored in 1995 – but they have a strong team this year, headed by market leader Kameko, who is also the pick on form.

The 2000 Guineas winner had excuses for three subsequent defeats but proved better than ever when carrying a penalty to victory in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket last time, beating some high-class older rivals.

He did become briefly outpaced when the tempo lifted two furlongs out, however, so this much sharper mile, contested around two bends, may put too great an emphasis on speed. Irish 2000 Guineas winner SISKIN, on the other hand, showed enough speed to win a Group 1 over six furlongs as a juvenile and has a sharp turn of foot that should prove an asset around this track.

He needs to bounce back from a disappointing display in the Prix du Moulin – the first underwhelming performance of his career – but he looks overpriced keeping in mind how the test of speed will play to his strengths.

Saturday 21:33 – Breeders’ Cup Turf 

The Europeans came up short in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year but they have dominated this race – responsible for seven of the last 10 winners – and look to have a strong team this time.

Magical, who finished runner-up to Enable in this in 2018, heads the betting and Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings and is clearly a worthy favourite having taken her Group 1 haul to seven with a career-best success in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, where she got the better of Ghaiyyath.

Magical has since finished a slightly underwhelming third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, but things didn’t play out perfectly there – she was held up further back than the first two in a race in which it paid to race prominently – and she is clearly a big player here.

Stablemate Mogul showed more pace than previously when winning the Grand Prix de Paris, though he still has a bit to find on ratings, while Lord North would be a big threat if recapturing the form he showed in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes but needs to bounce back from a flop in the Champion Stakes.

The one to side with, however, could be the progressive filly TARNAWA, who showed useful form as a three-year-old but has been a different proposition this year, winning all three starts, including at Group 1 level the last twice. She did especially well to win the Prix de l’Opera last time having been held up further back than ideal in a race run at a steady pace, and that potent change of gear will be an even greater asset around this track.

*Odds quoted on the widget are correct at time of publishing but all prices are subject to change.

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