With so much rain around this weekend the Paddy Power oddsmakers have cottoned on to the mudlarks that could dominate proceedings.
However, there is still plenty of value in the major betting races, so here is my each-way Lucky 15 for all the action.
Here’s what I fancy:
Of the four selections, seven-year-old ICE AGE is probably the best treated having fallen a massive 25lbs in the last 18 months.
But it is not like he has blown out completely during that time. For example, his last two runs at Bath and over this course and distance show that this is a mark he can take advantage of granted some kind of luck in running. Where he to return to the form he showed last year when second to Hyperfocus at Ripon then the seven-year-old would be a standout choice in this lower class four event.
The gelding acts on all types of ground and is surrounded by plenty of pace to give him a good tow through this contest.
Of his 11 rivals, Big Les could well be his biggest rival from the Julie Camacho yard. The five-year-old bounced back to form at a big price at Ayr last time out, taking advantage of a hot pace up front and finishing his race off well.
A 4lb penalty means he remains well weighted on the best of his old form and his shrewd handler has kept him fresh for this prize.
Richard Fahey has always thought that this son of Pastoral Pursuits would be a better horse over six furlongs than seven, but VENTURA REBEL’s recent York run over the longer trip doesn’t back that up as he ran at least 8lbs below his never nearer fourth in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
His second in the Norfolk Stakes as a juvenile looks very strong form now, but the key to his chance here is a fast pace and at least some give in the ground.
Of all the turf venues on Saturday, Newmarket is likely to receive the least rain, but a good to soft going description would be fine and with the likes of Burmese Waltz, Raucous, Jash and Highland Dress all prominent runners this should be run to suit.
The other factors in his favour are the stiff uphill climb to the finishing line and the view that we have almost certainly not seen the best him after just seven starts.
If there is a deluge, and it’s hard to tell how many of the predicted heavy showers will hit the track, then it may pay to have a saver on the unpronounceable Alemaratalyoum, a winner on heavy ground here last year off a one pound lower mark.
On just good to soft ground though Richard Hannon’s top weight OH THIS IS US looks the call having finally been given a chance by the handicapper.
Rated 110 some 10 months ago, the now seven-year-old has been given a right old chance off 103. He looked more than a shade unlucky the last time he ran here over the course and distance when boxed in with nowhere to go he was beaten a shade over two lengths into ninth place behind Salute The Soldier.
The selection has always been at his best giving weight away to inferior rivals as opposed to running in graded company and this looks a clearcut chance for him to return to winning ways.
Being beaten 99 lengths last time out over a mile is hardly worthy of a nap vote of confidence next time out, but that fact doesn’t tell the whole story.
MY BOY LEWIS was obviously distracted by something in the stalls that day and lost many lengths at the start and once exiting his box he was at least some 25 lengths off his 17 rivals. Thereafter, Paul Mulrennan let his mount come home in his own time so that run can be safely confined to the form dust bin.
The positive is that the handicapper has dropped him a pound for that run and he now resides on a mark a full 8lbs lower than for his last success at Doncaster.
That victory came on pretty testing ground, so any more rain won’t prove a problem and the four-year-old showed that he retains all of his ability when a solid second of 14 to Global Exceed over a mile here at the back end of June.
Sassoon could be a live wire danger on only his second start for Ben Haslam, while top weight Kyllachy Dragon is also a player despite the view that an artificial surface probably suits him best.
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