Remember to do the maths, do your homework and then make your subjective value plays. That is what all the big festivals are about.
From Galway to Goodwood, Cheltenham to York and Aintree to Punchestown.
But, always remember the hot favourites won’t always win and can’t always win. Let’s get down to business.
Tuesday 13:15 Buckingham Palace Handicap – Straight Right
Second to Accidental Agent in a heritage handicap in 2017 off a mark of 103, subsequent wins off 100 and 105 followed for STRAIGHT RIGHT.
However, his last two runs at Ascot (18 of 26 in the Victoria Cup and 23 of 26 in the Wokingham) look very moderate in the context of this race, but there were valid excuses for both runs.
Firstly, he raced on the wide outside in the former and fell from the traps in the latter.
A bit of dig in the ground is perfect for this now six-year-old and down to a mark of 98, with Silvestre De Sousa on board and Andrew Balding on fire, he looks to be overpriced. Jacks Point is the other outsider I like in this contest.
Wednesday 14:25 King George V Stakes – Glenties
A massively competitive three-year-old handicap, which has become one of the roughest races during the week.
Mark Johnston has a cracking record in these three-year-old middle-distance handicaps, especially here at Ascot and at Glorious Goodwood.
He has four entered and it could be GLENTIES that is the outsider to call upon.
He lacked pace over shorter and then at Goodwood on Sunday he wasn’t suited by setting slow early fractions and then he was hampered late on.
An end-to-end gallop over this stiff 12f will suit him much better and the Northern raider looks underrated.
Wednesday 15:35 Royal Hunt Cup – Walhaan
Last year’s winner Afaak and Dark Vision are both on my radar for this, but in a 24-runner straight line handicap I want a bit more price wise – and the totally unexposed WALHAAN fits the bill.
Ian Williams acquired this useful four-year-old from France and this will certainly be a baptism of fire for him as 10 horses has been the maximum amount of rivals he has raced against.
Despite his breeding, I suspect an extra furlong or two will suit, but the very fact that the ultra-shrewd Williams is giving him a stable and UK debut in such a tough race says plenty.
More rain won’t prove a problem and we know he will see this trip out thoroughly, so it is possibly only the nine box which could prove a problem. But hey, you can’t have everything in your favour at his price.
Thursday 13:50 Wolferton Stakes – West End Charmer
A seriously competitive Listed event with the likes of the 119-rated Regal Reality and 116 Sir Dragonet heading the market and official ratings.
However, I reckon that WEST END CHARMER (also entered in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap) has been seriously underrated in the market place.
Yes, he was suited by the front running bias at Newmarket in a class two handicap at the Guineas’ meeting, but all the same, the way he put the field to bed was emphatic.
That success continued his sharp upward curve after landing a Class 3 event at Doncaster 12 months previously.
I am hoping he can use his giant frame from some way out and get his rivals into trouble, and another similar 7 to 10lbs step forward would make him a very interesting outsider.
And yes, if he runs in the Duke of Edinburgh on Friday at 16:40, he merits serious consideration as well.
Saturday 15:35 Diamond Jubilee Stakes – Mubtasim
Having backed Sceptical for the King’s Stand Stakes before his Naas win I was gutted to hear that connections had switched him to this feature, but that is ante-post betting.
Sands of Mali is overpriced as is the course specialist The Tin Man and they are viable alternatives, but I can also see MUBTASIM running a huge race.
Beaten three lengths by Blue Point in the 2017 Pavilion Stakes, in the past year he has raced exclusively over 7 furlongs.
But, on a regular basis he has just been run out of the gold medal close to home and that was again the case when he was second at Riyadh behind Dark Power, but this drop back in drop looks spot on.
This will require a big step up of course, but he has been crying out for a drop in trip and could very well be the joker in the pack at a massive price.
* Prices on our snazzy new bet widget are bang up to date.
Paul Jacobs’ tips summary:
Tuesday 13:15 Buckingham Palace Handicap – Straight Right
Wednesday 14:25 King George V Stakes – Glenties
Wednesday 15:35 Royal Hunt Cup – Walhaan
Thursday 13:50 Wolferton Stakes – West End Charmer
Saturday 15:35 Diamond Jubilee Stakes – Mubtasim
RECOMMENDED READING:
- Horse Racing: 5 best Royal Ascot moments – including Frankel and Black Caviar
- Horse Racing tips: Jason Weaver’s tips for Tuesday at Royal Ascot begin with this 8/1 fancy
- Horse Racing tips: Timeform’s Royal Ascot handicappers to keep on your radar