We spoke to Timeform Australia handicapper Gary Crispe on the Paddy Power From the Horse’s Mouth podcast and picked his brains for his four best bets at the Randwick Park race meeting in the early hours of Saturday morning.
5.15am Inglis Sires’ Stakes – Mamaragan @ 11/5
Mamaragan has only had two race starts but was very good last time out running third in the Golden Slipper. He came home along the rails which probably wasn’t the best part of the track to be on at that time of the day, but he ran very well and usually the form from that race is what you need to look for ahead of the Sires’, so he’s bringing a strong form line. He’s around an even-money chance, and he’s got the figures to be competitive.
Ole Kirk has also only had a couple of starts, and was unlucky in the Sires’ down in Victoria. He’s a progressive type as well and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a hand in the finish.
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The latest International racing odds areon PP.com now5.55am Bentley Australian Derby – Castelvecchio @ 15/8
This is one of the best fields we’ve had for a while. Castelvecchio is a horse people in Europe might remember, who almost beat the champion Mare Lys Gracieux from Japan in the Cox Plate, a very good second on that occasion.
He’s had three runs and it’s taken a little while to get back to peak form, which he did eventually in the Rosehill Guineas when beating Prince Fawaz. He’ll come into this race with a different jockey but he won’t lose anything on that front with James McDonald riding.
He’ll go on the ground OK, but one at a price which has got a decent chance is Sherwood Forest. He’s a New Zealand Derby winner two starts back over 2400 metres. New Zealand Derby winners have a pretty good record in this race and he showed a lot of speed at the Rosehill Guineas but was just found wanting towards the end. That was his first run for nearly a month, so I think he’ll hit the strip a lot fitter tomorrow.
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Warning is a Victoria Derby winner who is ticking over nicely for this race as well. He probably wouldn’t want it too wet, and there’s been showers at Randwick recently, but the track shouldn’t be too bad for him.
Quick Thinker was a good winner last Saturday in the Tulloch Stakes and that’s good sighter for horses coming into the Derby, producing several winners over the years.
He’s another at good odds, but I’m with the top weight here in Castelvecchio.
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6.35am TJ Smith Stakes – Pierata @ 6/1
This is a terrific race. You’ll have to go a long way to see a better sprint race than this. Collectively these horses have 98 wins between them, and nine have been Group 1 wins, so you’re talking about a high-quality field of sprinters.
Nature Strip will likely go off favourite, but he’s a very hard horse to follow. He’s got a mind of his own. If things go right for him then he’s likely to get out in front and be hard to run down, but I just think Pierata is good value here.
He didn’t have a lot of luck when he resumed behind Nature Strip but I think he’ll go through the ground perfectly and it’ll suit him right down to the ground.
Away from him, Bivouac’s last win down the straight at Flemington was a pretty good effort, and he’ll get back to that form tomorrow and he gets through the ground OK.
Exceedance is a good one at a price. What he loves is wet ground, and he’s going to get that tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a really big race. But for me Pierata is the one to beat.
Doncaster Mile 7.15am – Brandenburg @ 6/1
Brandenburg has the right profile for this race. A couple of starts ago he was third in the Randwick which has always been a good guide for three-year-olds.
Shared Ambition did his early racing over in Europe. He’s been racing over staying distances over here and last won over 2000m at Randwick. But he’s been given a freshen up and dropped down to 1600 metres which is a formula his trainer Chris Waller has used before.
He’s one it six times before with a similar profile so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a big race. Prince Fawaz is another three-year-old who could go well.
But I’m with Brandenburg, he’s my best bet of the meeting despite being in a tough race. I think he’ll be very hard to beat.
*Prices correct at publishing but are subject to change.
The latest International racing odds areon PP.com nowREAD MORE:
- Jason Weaver’s 5 best bets Stateside on Saturday night
- Inside Mick Fitzgerald’s 1996 Grand National win – from pi**ed dad to winning post panic