This is the Florida Derby card, probably the best card of the year at this track, so they are doing everything they can to keep the show on the road, albeit with sensible social distancing measures.
The likely favourite here is MEAN MARY. She’ll take a lot of beating and has the edge on most of the field based on form. She’s won three from five and is a very likeable filly.
She should’t face any pace pressure, and she was a winner by five lengths in a similar race back in January. A repeat of that effort here should suffice, I think she’s a good thing and my best bet of the whole card.
Lake Avenue, the two-year-old, came back quite disappointingly back on March 7 have been set off odds-on. She was beaten by nine lengths, but you wouldn’t write her off here. Bill Mott is the trainer, and often his horses need a run in them before they get back up to full speed.
For me it revolves around the rematch for the trial for this race, between Spice Is Nice and Tonalist’s Shape, back on February 29. That was run over a mile and Tonalist’s Shape got a good set-up and kicked on with her speed. This is over half a furlong further and has two turns, which will bring stamina into play.
Spice is Nice was only making her second start in that last race and think she’s got more to come and definitely more suited to this test of stamina than Tonalist. I think SPICE IS NICE can overturn the form here.
It’s the same of suspects in this one, and the staying division in America isn’t that strong. I’m not going to be too original here, because ZULU ALPHA should win this quite easily.
Two starts ago over a trip too short she beat Magic Wand, kicking her out of the way in the straight. That was a massive effort and she’s backed it up since, beating Admission on this track last month.
She’s four from five at Gulfstream and hard to oppose. Anything around even money would be a good price. The form is so superior there’s nothing really to put up against it.
These are all a bit rubbish to be honest! It’s one where if you look through the card eight times you’ll get eight different winners.
The one that could just be a step above them is El Tormenta, although he’s been slightly hampered by the draw. It’s been off the track since finishing sixth at Santa Anita back on November 2, but that was a really good run in strong company.
It’s a short run to the bend, and if he can get out of the gates quickly this could be the horse that is a class above. But it’s an ordinary looking bunch, to be honest.
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Tiz The Law is likely to go off favourite, and is really well liked for the Kentucky Derby down the line too. He impressed in the trial for this, kicking Ete Indien out of the way, who has since come out and won another trial quite impressively, so is looks like Tiz The Law will take all the beating.
But he’s not going to be a great price, it’s a short field of 12 and there’s a lot that can go wrong and a few rubbish horses who can get in the way, so I’d just say at that price to look elsewhere.
Ete Indien was impressive last time out, Independence Hall had his bubble burst last time in Tampa he was three from three and looking like a Derby horse but was kicked out of the way on the straight, so the one I’m going to go for here is GOUVERNEUR MORRIS.
This one has only had three starts, he’s two from three, it’s only defeat came to a really promising looking horse called Maxfield. So he’s not done much wrong, he could with a bit of luck be a good each/way price.