The market for this race looks likely to be propped up by the likes of Whats To Blame and Sovereign Warrior but neither look solid and there are plenty of reasons to take them on. Whats to Blame is fast becoming a professional money burner. He’s 0-5 around here and 0-4 at the trip, over the flat five furlongs he gets behind early and usually has too much to do – pass.
Similar comments apply to Sovereign Warrior who looks like he’s better suited to a longer trip and just seems one-paced at this level. Wild One Forever should lead these from a good draw in stall 3. His eight-length victory in July last year is the best form at this trip on offer here. He was given a break before his last run in a higher grade on Feb 14 when he ran with credit – that should leave him spot on for this and I’m banking on him proving not for catching.
This is a low-grade maiden claimer ($12k price tag) that has a market being propped up by your likely favourite Isle of Man. Despite fetching $850k at the sales trainer Todd Pletcher entered him in a race on debut that he could be claimed for $25k – he wasn’t. Not only that but he ran beyond rubbish when trailing all the way and being beaten 10 lengths. This horse is not very good.
Consilium is no world-beater himself but has been running to a consistent level and two starts ago over C+D in this grade was touched off a neck – that sets the standard here and a repeat of that I’m nearly sure will suffice.
This horse had looked on the decline before moving to the Peter Walder Barn; his two starts under his care have been very good and read really well in the context of this race. Two starts ago he was part of a blistering pace battle that set the race up for closers yet still stuck around to be only beaten six lengths into sixth. Last time out he was hampered early in a $60k stakes race but still battled on to finish fourth – again not beaten far. He gets a small field here which he should be able to dominate from the lead and has blinkers added to sharpen him up further early. He looks worth a bet to make all here.
This is a decent little race with plenty of unexposed types but none make more appeal than the no.6 horse I Dare You. He was an impressive two-length winner of a good Belmont maiden in October before paying for setting a fast early pace in a $100k stakes race on his second start in December – just tiring late on to finish second. Given his abundance of speed the drop in trip should be no issue here and with trainer George Weaver having a very productive Gulfstream meet (38% strike rate) and top jockey Luis Saez (274 winners in 2019) in the saddle this horse seems to have everything in his favour here.