17:12 Mahoning Valley – Causeway Candy
Dinesen is the likely favourite here given his last run over course and distance when winning by five lengths but I think we can get him beat here and the draw is my worry with him. He’s drawn 7/7 but I’m not sure he’ll clear the no. 5 horse, Causeway Candy, who’s my idea of the winner. I’d favour Causeway Candy of the two all day long, he has the early speed to burn off Dinesen, holds plenty of this field on recent form too and the draw may have just won him the race already as long as he breaks.
17:40 Mahoning Valley – Super Beau
Super Beau looks a good alternative to the two likely favourites. There doesn’t appear to be much pace here and although he might struggle to clear those inside him from stall 5, he should be just behind the pace. His last three runs have all been in similar races tactically and he ran a career-best last time to make it two wins on the bounce. He steps back from a mile to 6 furlongs but for me, he has shown plenty of tactical speed in his last two wins to make the transition seamlessly.
18:00 Fairmount Park – Iker
Great Scat will head the market here but his lack of a run is worrying for his chances and so we search the market for something else. His best form has always come in the middle or towards the end of the season and today I can see this race over five furlongs being a stepping stone for the season ahead. Iker would be the most likely winner for me, his early speed could win this for him. It’s a short run to the first bend over five in Fairmount and to me, he looks to clear those inside him, which should put him in pole position to get home in front.
20:02 Mahoning Valley – Zippninthecity
Zippninthecity looks as if she has the perfect opportunity to get off the mark against an ordinary field. While she’s no superstar herself, the Santa Anita form that she brings to the table is levels above the standard of what else is on offer. Her new trainer is very good with horses in his care for the first time and normally has them ready when booking today’s jockey Luan Machado, the two have a 35% strike rate together. She has shown enough speed in her two starts to date to suggest she should be on the lead and for my money that’s exactly where she’ll stay throughout.
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