A good Sunday I think we’ll all agree as Glass Slippers and One Master did the business at Longchamp and it’s a high-octane punting Saturday this week.
A much-respected fellow pundit pleaded his Cesarewitch tipping to me last week: “Paul, she is absolutely thrown in on her form behind Kastasa at Leopardstown, look at what that filly has done since.”
And you know what, he is right, purely from a handicapping perspective Buildmeupbuttercup is nicely in at the weights, but….and wait for it, here is the but: that race was over 13f!
She was previously beaten over 2m 4f in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting, looking as though she didn’t get home in a lesser class race, and all the value has been squeezed out of her price at roughly 9/2.
Of course with Mr Dettori on board and trained by the mighty master of Closutton, who am I to say she won’t win. But, I’m not saying that. Of course, she can win, but there are several other entries that represent far better value and would glean us a bigger profit if they were merely placed in the Paddy’s top six places.
I have been waiting for this son of Mastercraftsman to be offered a deep test of stamina and that opportunity has finally arrived.
And, because this is arguably one of the best renewals of this lung-bursting race we have seen for many years, we can grab a slice of massive value in a race where Paddy is paying the first 6 home. Four from 13 under rules and three from eight on the turf, I was first alerted to his credentials for this race when I saw him beat Al Kout at Haydock last year on very soft ground over 1m 6f.
On that occasion, he still looked quite weak physically, but his class got him through in the closing stages to win a fair contest of its type and thereby complete a hat-trick of victories. Since then, the selection has been hurdling and then kept fresh for this contest with just the two runs on the level since the back end of January.
His fifth behind Time To Study on his return to Haydock last time out can be readily upgraded as there was a soft pace on that day and he was merely outpaced in the closing stages. But be left under no illusions, a good, solid gallop over this trip is exactly what he needs and although the gelding doesn’t have the sexy CV of the Mullins’ fav or any of Sir Mark Prescott’s entries, his chance is there for all to see if you look closely enough.
Oh, and did I say he has a lovely box sit in number 3?
As for the dangers, well the ‘Buttercup’ is one as is Aidan O’Brien’s Cypress Creek (could be worth a saver at double-figure odds) along with two other three-year-olds, Land of Oz and Ranch Hand. I shall be combining the selection with those three in combination forecast and tricasts.
I think like many people I am hoping that Pinatubo remains on the ultra-superstar plane that everyone hopes and thinks he is when he goes for glory once again in the Dewhurst Stakes at 3.30. But whether he wins by a short head or 10 lengths in a field of nine there are still two further places up for grabs and I think ARIZONA at 14/1 can hit the frame for us.
ETHIC hasn’t experienced the fast pace he needs to bring him into a race on his last two outings and off a mark of 84 he could run well in the nursery at 1.45pm while I really like the look of PERSIA at around 6/1 in the Autumn Stakes at 2.55pm.
I fancy the enigmatic GEORGE BOWEN to outrun his double-figure odds of 25/1 in the big 6f handicap at York at 3.50pm. Richard Fahey’s charge has plummeted from a rating of 106 to 93 and it is only a matter of time before he makes his presence felt in a race of this nature.
AIRCRAFT CARRIER has his easiest task for some while, albeit off top-weight, when he contests the two-mile handicap at 5.00pm. He is back down to his last winning mark and has the services of SDS to boot.
*Prices correct at time of publishing
Paul Jacobs’ Saturday Picks:
1.45pm Newmarket – Ethic
2.55pm Newmarket – Persia @ 6/1
3.30pm Newmarket – Arizona @ 14/1
3.50pm York – George Bowen @ 25/1
4.10pm Cesarewitch, Newmarket – Garbanzo @ 40/1
5.00pm York – Aircraft Carrier