There comes a time in your betting life, hopefully several times, when you identify a punting concern at a huge price and your eyes simply light up. The Ayr Bronze Cup (15.45) on Friday with UPSTAGING fits the bill.
It was only 12 months ago that the seven-year-old went off a 22/1 shot in the Gold Cup, finishing in 19th place after running way too freely at the sharp end for four and a half furlongs.
Since then his mark has plummeted from three figures all the way down to his current rating of 75 and for a large part of this year’s campaign he has looked blatantly out of love with the game. However, there have been a couple of pieces of evidence that suggest otherwise, led by his stand out effort, a second to Boy In The Bar in June, which significantly came over this course and distance.
With the ground drying out and his draw in 12, which means Rossa Ryan can choose which side to race on, I fancy this veteran to hugely outrun his massive odds of 66/1 with Paddy Power. With five places up for grabs I would be very happy with a placed effort, a victory would be like robbing a bank and getting away with it wholesale style.
If you are not as daring as me and humongous odds make you slightly jittery then TOMMY G @ 8/1 from the hugely in form Jim Goldie yard fits the bill. He looks handicapped to make his mark off 77 so 8/1 looks a fair safety net wager.
But if a massive-priced outsider gives you the shakes in a 25-runner race then let me lead you in the direction of my best bet on the card at the West of Scotland track in the form of THEGLASGOWWARRIOR @ 7/1 in the extended two miler at 16.20.
The five-year-old has been keeping the very best staying company all year with his peak performance coming in the Shergar Stayers Handicap when a strong staying second to Eddystone Rock.
Such has been his consistency the assessor has only dropped him a 1lb, despite being winless in on his last six outings. This is arguably a drop in grade for him, and he is the proverbial each-way bet to nothing in this stamina-sapping event.
For those of you, like me, who love a shot at betting under the lights at Newcastle and Dundalk then come skip this way please.
Ballydoyle’s DUNKIRK HARBOUR (20.05) looks a shoo-in for the big race of the night at the Co Louth track, but his odds will be pretty restrictive so the value wager comes in the a low-grade affair at 20.35 in SCHOOLBOY ERROR.
This is the first time that the six-year-old has raced over 1m 2f for some 15 months and he should benefit from getting a good tow through the race before his guaranteed stamina comes into play.
The added tongue tie could also make a massive difference.
At Gosforth Park, it has seemingly paid to be somewhere near the pace in the last few meetings, but that could have been exaggerated by quite a few slowly run races at the Tyneside course.
False ID is certainly a player in a low grade sprint handicap at 19.20 and any market moves should be noted from connections, but it could well be the turn of MOSTAHEL to shine here @ 13/2.
His run behind East Street Revue at Thirsk last time out was way better than it looked and the return to 7f off a career low mark (was rated some 24lbs higher last term) means he is worth more than a second glance in a race where there is plenty of chaff, but little wheat.
*Prices correct at time of publishing