Not a high confidence race though we like two Mark Johnston horses against the field in Poets Prince (currently 7/2) and Book Of Dreams (we’re 12/1). The latter looks like a typical Johnston horse that could bounce back to form with ground in his favour and Silvestre De Sousa booked.
We think the front two in the market look very solid against the field with preference for Lincoln Rocks, who would rate a bet at 4/1. She has a very consistent profile and looks sure to run to her mark, which could be enough, particularly if she gets an easy lead.
Not the easiest race to figure out. At the prices Arod might be worth a go at 9/2 in the hope the ground continues to dry out quickly. He’s the class horse in the race and has form here, so looks to hold every chance.
Wide open handicap. Our threee against the field are Duke Of Firenze (very unlucky in the last year and similar mark here), Tanasoq (comes here in excellent form and form-lines stand up well) and Caspian Prince (4 from 5 over C&D though draw only slight worry).
16:30 Epsom Derby
We’re very keen on Saxon Warrior and believe anything above 10/11 is well worth taking.
We struggled to find any negatives with the exception of him being drawn in Stall 1, which probably isn’t a major issue given he has four stable mates in here that will ensure they don’t hamper his chance.
Of the others, Delano Roosevelt would look the each-way play. He has some solid form in Ireland, including against Saxon Warrior, and he’s open to improvement over this trip. We’re against Young Rascal (don’t rate the Chester form highly) and Roaring Lion (very impressive last time though ground/track and trip concerns here).
Dash Of Spice is deservedly favourite here with his form tying in very closely with Ajman King. He clearly loves the track and he’s fine on the ground – it would be a surprise if he is not rated a lot higher than his current mark of 87 come the end of the season.
The in-form Silvestre De Sousa rides and he’s clearly a massive positive for any horse on this track. From an each-way perspective Eddystone Rock ran really well on reappearance this year at Newmarket and was second in this race last year off a similar mark. He looks likely to be involved and would look the value bet at 16/1.
We’re quite keen on the chances of Shanghai Glory, who will like the ground and has some good course form to his name. He’s definitely well handicapped on his run in the Stewards Cup last year and with luck in running we think he’ll go very close.