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13.50, Musselburgh – Eton College
This looks a really competitive race for this level and several returning from a while off the track have a cracking record when fresh – most notably the course and distance winner Hayadh and the lightly-raced mare Molls Memory (Hollie Doyle taking the booking).
However, that duo may have to give best to ETON COLLEGE who, unlike many of his rivals, remains relatively unexposed and has some very interesting back form. A winner off 82 and placed off 87 as a juvenile in some pretty hot handicaps, he then had 352 days on the sidelines and was gelded and has found it hard to re-find his form since then.
Four runs this winter have yielded nothing and in fact there was plenty to worry about after his last tailed off effort at Newcastle over 1m, although to be fair Andrew Breslin eased his mount a long way from home. The upside to that run is that he has been dropped a further 3lbs to a mark of 82. Franny Norton takes over here and a sharp 7f is much more his cup of tea and a double-figure price has drawn me in.
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15.00, Musselburgh – Zarzyni
This is going to be a typical burn up of this Scottish Sprint Cup headed by that grand old boy Caspian Prince, who should be able to tack across from stall six and burn up the Edinburgh turf. But that in turn should give a lovely tow through for a number of these and the selection ZARZYNI looks a real stand-out bet to me.
He is close up in the market place with Justanotherbottle and while the latter looks a stand out off his current handicap mark, he isn’t the most consistent whereas the selection still has plenty of potential in his locker.
An 11lbs drop in the ratings after a fruitless last campaign – that was not without promise – was an overreaction from the assessor. However, his return to action in March at Wolverhampton was hugely encouraging and is a run I have upgraded. That is because he was not only keen through that 6f event (hence I think the drop to 5f will suit off a fast pace), but he was also quite badly impeded after a furlong and a bit more.
That run should have blown away the cobwebs and the double bonus is that he is drawn beautifully in stall 12 AND the handicapper has decided to keep him on the same mark here.
15.15, Haydock – Small Present
I am totally bamboozled by the decision to water the Merseyside track with the going described as good to soft (soft in places). What chance do the genuine spring ground horses have on this prestigious card? Let’s hope Aintree don’t have the same watering policy through next week.
Had the going been allowed to take its natural course, I would have been very keen on the very lightly raced nine-year-old Colonial Dreams about which Nicky Henderson has always thought an awful lot of and his handicap mark of 133 makes more than some appeal.
However, he is best served by top of the ground and under the circumstances the play against him simply has to be SMALL PRESENT, even though he is likely to start favourite here. Sue Smith hasn’t had the best of seasons but her yard really began to turn things around just before Cheltenham and she was richly rewarded when Vintage Clouds landed the Ultima Handicap Chase there.
This son of Presenting has certainly taken his time to find his feet, but as his stamina has been unearthed on better ground he has flourished with wins off 117 and 123. A 6lb penalty for that last success looks very fair and he can complete the hat-trick here against a field which to my eyes lacks a bit of strength in depth.
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15.35, Musselburgh – Indianapolis
Trainer Mark Johnston is bound to have a say in this feature event of the afternoon with five of the 14 declared runners, the best of which could well be Hochfield who is back down to his last winning mark which came at Goodwood last year.
However, that quintet may all be eclipsed by the six-year-old selection INDIANAPOLIS who has finally been shown some mercy by the handicapper and makes his stable debut for Ian Williams. His last win came off a mark of 97, but in a four-runner event at Leicester on heavy ground, and since then he has been placed off a 1lb-higher mark.
A 1½m trip seems too sharp for him nowadays and 2m a shade too far, so a fast run race over this intermediate trip is absolutely spot on. The drop to a mark of 95 gives him a real chance here and good ground is absolutely perfect for this son of the great Galileo, who can finally land the big prize his consistency so deserves and see off the likes of hurdles flop Diocletian and all-weather winner Nate The Great.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at the time of publication but subject to change
Paul Jacobs bet summary – Saturday, April 3
13.50, Musselburgh – Eton College
15.00, Musselburgh – Zarzyni
15.15, Haydock – Small Present
15.35, Musselburgh – Indianapolis
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