*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:15 at Kempton – Ecco
Andrew Balding’s Diocletian was rated as high as 97 on the Flat and will have his conditions now. If his jumping holds up he is a massive player. Despite the probability, Ecco, who finds it hard to jump out of deep ground, looks huge value. He could well have more improvement in him returned to his ideal conditions.
You could argue his best run came on a more testing surface when third to the classy Buzz (who finished fifth in the Betfair Hurdle last weekend) at Ascot the time before, but he was out on his feet at the business end that day. Top of the ground is more his domain. In time, I think he could be a 140+ hurdler and if that is the case he must be supported here off 133, with conditions of track and race to suit.
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14:05 at Lingfield – Rocket Action
Moss Gill is officially rated a full 6lbs higher than anything else in the field for this Listed contest. He will surely have bigger fish to fry at the start of the turf season though and it wouldn’t surprise me if he a fair way from his peak. Of course, that may well be good enough to beat this lot.
However, we need to look at the make-up of this race and with Ornate and Lord Riddiford almost certain to set a lightning pace from the start that should prove the perfect set up for Rocket Action. The selection raced in Listed or Group events last year and certainly wasn’t disgraced on the best of those runs when third in a Group Three on the sand at Dundalk.
The five-year-old has a fair record when fresh and his seven box draw shouldn’t prove a problem for a hold up horse that is set to get a good tow through the five furlongs.
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15:15 at Newcastle – Salty Boy
The drying ground will certainly suit the top weight and 2019 champion Crosspark, but he will need the weather forecast to be spot on to have a chance off a mark fully 15lbs higher than for that neck success over Mysteree in 2019. The other problem for the former champion is that there are several progressive and dour stayers in receipt of plenty of weight that look sure to take another step forward for tackling this extended four mile trip.
Top of that tree has to be the David Bridgwater charge Salty Boy and sentiment would make him an apt winner after the Stow-On-The-Wolrd trainer lost The Conditional last week at Newbury. However, the bare facts are the sole reason why I fancy this eight-year-old.
The selection has progressed nicely on all four starts this season and from distances ranging from two and a half miles to three and a half miles he has been strong through the line on each occasion. Surprisingly he is fully 6lbs lower than for that opening salvo of the campaign and if we get a solid end-to-end gallop I think he will outstay the majority of these down the long home stretch.
Of the remaining runners, in what amounts to a hugely open renewal, I was also interested in Springfield Fox at a double-figure price. He was sent off an 8/1 for the Welsh Grand National, but was never going at any stage, being pulled up on the final turn and then a couple of poor jumps cost him mid race before being pulled up at Wincanton.
He is now a full 7lbs lower for those two misdemeanours and if he manages to get into a good jumping rhythm then he could well be a danger to all in what is a definitive drop in grade.
16:10 at Kempton – My Way
One of the major factors when assessing racing at the Sunbury-on-Thames track will be the fastest ground that any of these horses will have raced on for the past five months and the Paul Nicholls’ charge, My Way, simply relishes such a surface. He is also a difficult horse to rate as he only just does enough to win. That was the case at Stratford when he won off a mark of 122.
His last two outings behind the likes of the classy Cepage and Call Me Vic at Sandown Park can be safely consigned to the dust bin as he had no chance of getting home on both occasions out of the deep winter ground. The son of Martaline remains competitively handicapped off a mark of 126 and could have another nicely treated sort to worry about most, namely the outsider No Hidden Charges.
Paul’s value plays on Saturday
13:15 at Kempton – Ecco
14:05 at Lingfield – Rocket Action
15:15 at Newcastle – Salty Boy
16:10 at Kempton – My Way
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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