Cheltenham tips: The Gold Cup horse that’s gone from 50/1 to 8/1 NRMB

The Paddy Power traders are worried about this Gold Cup contender.

Royale Pagaille Charlie Deutsch Kempton December 27, 2020

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at the time of publication but subject to change

 

Frank Hickey has picked out one horse who could cause the Paddy Power traders a headache in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Al Boum Photo is attempting to land the Grade 1 contest for a third consecutive year, but the Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old has failed to capture the public’s imagination and several rivals have received plenty of backing.

Paddy are offering non-runner money back on every single race at the 2021 festival, and that has seen punters pile on a number of contenders at attractive prices.

Speaking on the latest ‘Countdown to Cheltenham’ podcast, our expert trader Frank explained how one such runner has shortened to 8/1 from as big as 50/1 just a few months ago.

You can listen to the full show BELOW.

AL BOUM PHOTO was put straight in at 5/1 after last year’s race but he has not been popular at all. People don’t give him credit for what he’s achieved and they are looking to take him on.

That is reflected in our antepost book, in which we have loads of significant losers. CHAMP is the biggest one, followed by TOPOFTHEGAME – who is obviously out injured and not going to make it.

We have big liabilities on A PLUS TARD, DELTA WORK, MINELLA INDO and SANTINI. What that says to me is people are looking to take on Al Boum Photo and don’t really rate what he has achieved.

In the non-runner money back book, ROYALE PAGAILLE is the one people have latched onto. We saw plenty of cash at 50/1, 33/1 and 25/1 while he is now just an 8/1 shot so he is a very significant loser. The other chunky liabilities in that book are SAINT CALVADOS and SANTINI but I don’t think we have too much to worry about with those two.

RoyalePagailleJan21

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A good race for punters

The Gold Cup is huge for bookies. The Grand National is the one race that every non-racing fan has a bet on, and the next one would be the Gold Cup. Turnover will be huge and it is vital that we get our pricing correct – or as close to correct as we can.

But it has been a relatively decent race for punters. If you go back over the last 10 renewals, the SP of the winner has been 7/2F, 8/1, 11/4F, 20/1 (which was Lord Windermere), 7/1, 9/4F, 7/1, 5/1, 12/1 and 100/30F. We’ve had four winning favourites in the last 10 years and two double-figure prices so it hasn’t been the most difficult race for punters to figure out.

You then have a couple of races on the Friday which are a little bit more tricky, such as the Albert Bartlett, the Foxhunter and a couple of the handicaps. The Gold Cup is potentially a race where punters can latch on to something a little bit closer to the front of the market – and they haven’t been doing too badly recently.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at the time of publication but subject to change

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL‘S BIG RACES

March 16 – 13.20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle latest odds and tips

March 16 – 15.05 – Champion Hurdle latest odds and tips

March 17 – 13.20 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle latest odds and tips

March 17 – 15.05 – Queen Mother Champion Chase latest odds and tips

March 18 – 14.30 – Ryanair Chase latest odds and tips

March 18 – 15.05 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle latest odds and tips

March 19 – 13.20 – Triumph Hurdle latest odds and tips

March 19 – 14.30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle latest odds and tips

March 19 – 15.05 – Gold Cup latest odds and tips

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY FOUR SCHEDULE

13.20 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y

13.55 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y

14.30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y

15.05 – Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y

15.40 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup 3m 2f 70y

16.15 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 127y

16.50 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f 56y

*Paddy will be all over your telly box throughout the Cheltenham Festival sponsoring ITV’s live coverage from Prestbury Park – and you can get free and exclusive tipping columns EVERY DAY from Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman and Mick Fitzgerald here on PP News.

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