Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays on Saturday across the tracks

Top tipster Paul Jacobs has deep-dived into Saturday's cards.

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Thirsk 14:10 – Irv

A record of two wins from 20 turf career outings hardly merits shouting from the roof tops about the chances of this relatively lightly raced five-year-old, but to my eyes he has not really had his optimum conditions to make him a prime player of late.

In fact on ground way too quick for him last time out, the selection was a huge eye catcher when making some significant late headway up the home run when a two and a half lengths fifth of 11 behind Ventura Rascal last month.

I am actually surprised that the much criticised assessor didn’t nudge him up a pound or two for that run, but he is once again set to run off 65 under his Pontefract partner, 7lbs claimer Aiden Brookes, and he has a cracking each-way chance here as long as his young rider bides his time on his charge and doesn’t have a rush of blood too early.

Of his rivals, I have most time for Dubai Acclaim (good run at Newcastle last time out) and the soft ground specialist and light weight Mabre whose record on testing ground is 013, the first of those efforts best excused as it came on his career debut in an above average maiden.

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Newmarket 15:15 – Just Frank

Although the home of racing is one of the best draining tracks in the country, the recent downpours will at least guarantee that there will be no sting in the turf and with further heavy showers forecast for Friday and Saturday I am hoping that there is at least some dig for the top weight.

Now let’s be clear, there are less exposed types in the field in the form of the likeable Jumby, Desert Gulf and the bottom weight Smeaton’s Light, but the selection has more than proven he is capable at this level whereas that trio all have to step up again in quite a competitive contest.

The other positive for the selection is that he is the only course winner in the field, but the real key to his chance could be his handicap mark.

Rated 97 when second in a Listed race last back end, he has been far from disgraced in another Listed event and off a mark of 100 last time out. That latest outing saw his chance compromised on two fronts though. First up, he pulled very hard early on and there was no way he was going to last home and the pace was very moderate to boot.

But I think the shrewd Les Eyre has played a cracker here by booking the fine seven pound claimer Harry Burns which means that the son of Epaulette is now a full 10lbs lower than last time out!

Saffron Beach Adam Kirby Newmarket October 9, 2020

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Newmarket 15:50 – Ametist

There are quite a few nice seven furlong/one mile handicaps up and down the country which means this race doesn’t have as much strength in depth as seemed likely at the beginning of the week with just the 11 set to go to post at the time of writing.

A real end to end gallop should see the Gosden trained Riot step up on his performances so far this year as he has to have cover and then gallop on through beaten horses. If he gets that kind of make-up then I make him the biggest danger to the less exposed selection.

The William Haggas charge impressed plenty when scooting clear in the closing stages to land a Wetherby novice by four and a quarter lengths. That was a race he was entitled to win in such good style, but a handicap rating of just 87 could well underestimate his talent.

A mile should prove well within his compass in time, but a stiff seven will certainly not compromise his chance here and it is worth remembering that on his career debut last year at Yarmouth he was only beaten under three lengths by subsequent Lincoln hero Haqeeqy.

Newbury 16:45 – King Ottokar

I am hoping that Overwrite lines up here as he could well be the key to this mile handicap being the main pace angle in the race even though there are three pressers set to line-up alongside him.

If that it is the case and we get a true test at the trip there are several in here that will see their true stamina waning in the final 200 yards or so, but that scenario will surely play into the hands of the Charlie Fellowes’ entry, who was a non-runner at York on Thursday.

You could argue that this strapping five-year-old hasn’t fulfilled his early promise since making a winning debut here over seven furlongs on soft ground after which he could never get a shot at the leaders in the Futurity Stakes and in seven of his subsequent eight runs found a mile and a quarter plus simply too far apart from winning over 10f in a stop start kind of race on his three-year-old debut.

Given that fair record when fresh, he was to my eyes hugely disappointing when going off at a well backed 17/2 on his return at Doncaster. However, in that renewal of the Lincoln he had to be switched from a poor draw early and the lack of pace in the race meant that he was always at a distinct disadvantage.

But if there is a genuine gallop on here and we get more rain I think he will go close to making it three from three at the Berkshire track.

Paul Jacobs’ best bets:

Thirsk 14:10 – Irv
Newmarket 15:15 – Just Frank
Newmarket 15:50 – Ametist
Newbury 16:45 – King Ottokar

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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