Breeders’ Cup tips: Our trader’s 5 to thrive at Keeneland on Saturday night

This fab fivesome has the trading floor buzzing.

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17:39 Big Runnuer

This is not normally a race European entrants do well in because it is so different to what they are used too. Just having to maintain the speed they have to go at over 5-furlongs while also going around a bend just doesn’t suit and it gives the Americans such an advantage because it’s a niche skill that they have. Glass Slippers is the only European here and she just doesn’t fit the profile for this race at all.

It helps to be quite handy at these Turf Sprints, so that makes you look to the two mares Oleksandra and Got Stormy. There is a lot to like about the pair, but they’re going to have a lot on their plates turning for home. The horse drawn in stall 1 BIG RUNNUER is definitely the pace angle here.

We’d be surprised if anything got close Big Runnuer because on quick ground over 5 furlongs he’s lethal. He won a Group 2 last time out at Santa Anita really impressively. He was drawn out in stall 7 that day, but he had the rail after 100 yards. He’s just so quick out of the gate, that’s a huge asset in Turf Sprints. There’s not many to be mad keen on at the head of the market and Victor Garcia’s charge can cause a big shock here.


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18:18 Knicks Go

This can be a consolation race of sorts for the Classics, but it does tend to throw up really good horses and performances. This field might just do something similar on Saturday and Complexity is likely to be the favourite. Last time out he finally got his act together and there’s no denying how good he was.

However, he might need to match that career best to match KNICKS GO. Our selection is going to be the likely frontrunner, with Complexity and Art Collector just behind him. The switch to Brad Cox has been key for Knicks Go and he’s two-from-two since he joined the stable. He won over course and distance the last time and it was an electric showing. He brunt everything off and no horse could get close to him.

Complexity will try to sit off the pace, but when they turn for home, Knicks Go might have them all out of their comfort zone. That’s a problem for Complexity because this is as far as he is gone, and he doesn’t stay much beyond a mile. Knicks Go clearly has a huge engine though, and it’s hard to see anything passing him. That should lead to an all-the-way victory in this race.


18:57 Peaceful

On the flip side of our opening selection, this is a race that European raiders always do well in. But, it was quite a shock to discover that Aidan O’Brien has never won this race. That should be rectified on Saturday with PEACEFUL, she just looks tailor-made for this race.

It’s been the target for her for quite some time and she has been brought back from a break pretty steadily for the Prix de Diane Longines. Plus, she ran a great race behind Champers Elysees on Irish Champions weekend at Leopardstown back in September and you can probably put a line through what happened to her at Newmarket, as the ground was just far heavier there than what she wanted.

She has had that good break in the middle of the season, so there are no worries about her being over-the-top towards the end of the campaign. She’s going to be a good deal fresher than most of these and she fits the profile really well to take this one. She’s got a great draw in stall 3 and Aidan has said that they want to go forward with her, which should suit given the lack of pace elsewhere in the field.


21:33 Magical

This should prove really straightforward for MAGICAL and she should be very hard to beat. You know that she’ll want to be sitting somewhere pretty prominent in this race and apart from her, there’s just next to no pace in the contest at all.

Channel Maker and United will probably go forward, but we can’t imagine Ryan Moore giving them a soft lead. Moore should be the one dictating here, as a lot of the good horses back the field are going to be ridden quieter and it’s going to benefit Magical that she is so uncomplicated, in that you can sit anywhere with her.

She’s got the best form in the book and she holds Lord North quite comfortably on form. We know Mogul was deadly in the Grand Prix de Paris and his form has taken quite a big boost from the Arc, with the two horses running so well in behind. But, that was such a truly run race and this isn’t going to be run to suit him. Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa will be a massive danger, but she does need to step up to get to Magical’s level. In fact, everything in this race has to do that to get near her.


22:18 Tom’s D’etat

This is a really good, open race where TOM’S D’ETAT is worth backing. This one is pretty much trainer Bob Baffert against the rest, as his three runners have landed the three outside stalls.

There is going to be a hot pace here and Baffert’s Improbable is going to be the likely favourite. But, Tom’s D’etat just seems to be the one coming in here under the radar. He’s a model of consistency and a strongly run race isn’t going to bother him one bit. He’s got to turn around Improbable’s win over him at Saratoga back in August though, where our selection as 2-and-a-half lengths behind.

However, if you watch that race back Tom’s D’etat just completely blew the start and it’s a credit to him that he got back within 2-and-a-half lengths at the end. This is going to be a completely different test and it’s should favour him. He’s bound to run a huge race and he represents the value in the field.

Trader’s tips summary:

17:39 Big Runnuer
18:18 Knicks Go
18:57 Peaceful
21:33 Magical
22:18 Tom’s D’etat


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