Analysing the pace in horse races is one way pointers believe they can secure a quick win over their mates. Horse racing betting is all about making informed predictions and understanding the pace of a race before the action gets underway would, in theory, be hugely valuable.
The problem is, when you hear commentators talk about racing pace it’s usually during or after the race. So what’s the point in sweating over it?
Well, Paddy Power is here to tell you why pace analysis in horse racing can help your bets.
What is pace analysis in horse racing?
Pace analysis is about understanding the speed at which a race will be / is being / was run. You might hear a tipster saying a race will be run at a fast pace – but why should you care? Well, because your horse might not be great at keeping up with the pace. Knowing or predicting the race pace gives you an indication of which horses might thrive and which won’t, assuming you know their running style.
Punters use pace analysis to help their betting predictions
Is pace the same as running style?
Nope! Race pace is the speed with which the whole race will be run. Running style is specific to each horse. For example, a horse might be a frontrunner, which means they like to set the pace. Or it might be a trailer and prefer to sit at the back before coming through towards the end.
Does this matter? Well, yes. If you know your horse is a trailer and only strikes for the front in the last quarter of the race, for example, then you’ll be hoping for a slow race pace so your horse can reserve as much energy as possible. If your horse likes to lead from the front and has the stamina to hold its position then a fast pace could suit it. However, if too many frontrunners are vying for the lead then they could exhaust each other, and allow a low-lying closer to come through for the win.
How to conduct pace analysis
While you could conduct pace analysis yourself, it’s far easier to let the experts do it. Over in the United States, broadcasters provide split times during races. This gives an indication of the pace of a race in real time, which is a fun little extra but not exactly useful, unless you’re betting on live horse races.
If you want to do it yourself then you’ll need a stopwatch and points in the racecourse to place your splits. Exactly what benefit you’ll get for collecting all that data at the end of the day depends on how dedicated you are to horse racing betting.
Can I use pace analysis to my advantage?
There are a few ways you can analyse the pace of a standalone race and use it to your advantage.
First race of the day – If you analyse the first race of a meeting and deem it to be slow, check the going and if it’s soft or wet. If it is, then it’s likely that all races that day will be run at a slow pace too. This is great for stayers and trailers who prefer to conserve their energy until the end.
Keeping an eye on a horse – Equally, if you plan to track a specific horse then watching its race pace over a few races will give you an indication of its quality, so you can bet on it next time. However, other factors like its Official Rating are probably more reliable than its general race pace.
Live betting – If you’re able to bet live then knowing the race pace – especially in US races where you get time splits – can be really useful. However, you have to act fast to place a winning bet using this method.
Why do Americans record split times?
US TV networks show time splits during races, which adds an extra layer of entertainment for viewers. This is particularly useful if you’re betting on a single race meet, where horses will be bolting around the same track length. You’ll quickly become accustomed to the conditions and whether races are being run fast, slow, or somewhere in between.
However, the big advantage of recording split times in the US is when analysts are tracking horses during training. Horses are permitted practice runs at racetracks ahead of big events. Those preparing for the Preakness Stakes, for example, will each get run-outs at Pimlico Racecourse. A trainer might be looking for even splits over a training run, or uneven splits that show the horse getting faster in the final sprint.
It’s a bit like when F1 drivers do practice sessions ahead of qualifying. The trainer and jockey are testing out their horse on the track and use pace analysis to work out the best strategy.
Race pace and the Grand National
One race where the pace can really make a difference is when you’re betting on the Grand National. This is a four-mile slog over 30 jumps, with 34 horses competing. It’s incredibly difficult to win and horses are also carrying between 10st and 11st 10lbs on their backs.
If the race is run at a fast pace to begin with then it’s almost certain to slow towards the end. It could also lead to more falls at the latter jumps. If the race is run at a slow pace then we could be in for a blockbuster finish with most runners completing the course.
It’s easier to bet live on the Grand National than most other horse races so, if you’re ready to follow the live odds, then use the pace as your guide.
READ MORE
- Why are there false starts in horse races like the Grand National?
- How many horses are there in the Grand National?
- Grand National prize money: How much does the Grand National winner get?
- 9 things to consider when picking a Grand National winner
- Grand National fence names and the stories behind every Aintree jump
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