How Do Odds Work in Football?

Odds in football are pretty easy to read but they can be really volatile

how do odds work in football

Understanding how odds work is the first step to mastering any sport – and there’s no better place to start than football. Here at Paddy Power we offer millions of football odds to our punters every year. From the World Cup and Premier League to League 2 and Serie C, you can bet on football however you like, whenever you like.

But before you begin, you need to understand how the odds work. Fail to do this and you’ll be betting blind, which is never a good idea.

Learning about football odds will set you on the path to making smarter decisions about your selections, the size of your stakes, and when to cash out.

Let’s start by looking at the types of odds you can use to bet on football.

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Football betting odds explained

Football betting odds show you how much money you stand to win from a successful bet, relative to your stake. The idea is you can gauge your profit potential simply by looking at the odds. The higher the number, the more profit you stand to win, which also means your bet has less chance of winning.

Your profit potential rests on two things:

  • How much you stake
  • The size of the odds

For example, you plan to bet £1 on Italy to beat Spain at the World Cup. Italy are 4/1 underdogs. This means you get £4 profit for every £1 you bet. In this instance, then, you earn £4 profit + your £1 stake from an Italy victory, which equals £5 in total.

You could bet more. Say you bet £10, then you’d earn £40 profit + your £10 stake back = £50.

Or you could wait for the odds to change and bet then. Say Italy’s odds move to 7/1 and you bet a tenner. Now you stand to win £70 profit + your £10 stake back = £80.

How do odds work in football?

We’ve explained a little bit about football odds in the above section but now it’s time to look at the three types of odds that bookmakers use in more detail. Punters can access fractional odds and decimal odds at Paddy Power – but we’ll also explain American odds to you here too.

Decimal odds

Decimal odds are what you’ll most commonly see on the Paddy Power app, although you can also change to fractional odds. Decimal football odds show how much you stand to earn in total from a £1 bet. That means your total return, so stake + profit.

Here’s an example. You bet on Tunisia to beat Brazil at the World Cup at odds of 5.00. A £1 bet returns £5 (£4 profit + £1 stake). It’s pretty easy to read decimal odds because they simply show how much you get back. A £2 bet turns into a £10 return if Tunisia win.

If the odds go below 2.00 then your profit will be less than your stake. But you do get your stake back too – a winning bet always pays out! So, backing Brazil to 1.40 to beat Tunisia means you earn 40p profit for every £1 staked.

Fractional odds

Fractional odds are historically the home of football betting, although many punters have moved to decimal odds. With fractional football odds, you see how much profit you stand to make relative to your stake.

For example, Tunisia are 4/1 to beat Brazil. The figure on the left is your profit relative to the figure on your right (the stake). So, you get £4 profit for every £1 staked. Your total return is therefore £4 + £1 = £5.

Now, what happens if the numbers are reversed? What would betting on Brazil at 1/3 look like? Well, here you earn £1 for every £3 you stake. If you only want to bet a quid, then you’ll need to divide that profit number (1) by the stake number (3) to see how much profit you stand to earn. In this instance, you’d earn 33p profit from a successful £1 bet on Brazil.

how odds work in sport

Football odds work by setting a probability of a bet winning

American Odds

Finally, let’s look at American odds. These work like an index and, as it’s America, they’re super-sized. Positive American odds show how much profit you stand to make from a £100 bet. Negative American odds show how much you need to bet, in order to win £100.

Here’s an example of football American odds. Tunisia are +400 to beat Brazil. If you bet £100 then you earn £400 profit plus your £100 stake back = £500. Of course, if you bet a quid then you get a fiver back.

Negative American odds work in reverse. Say Brazil are -300 to beat Tunisia. Here, you need to bet £300 in order to win £100 profit, and return £400 in total.

Calculate odds probability when betting on football

Many punters look at odds and figure out the return they’ll get from their stake, and then decide whether or not to bet. It’s not often that football betting fans bother to look at probability – but there is value to working this out.

After all, a quick glance at odds of England to win the World Cup at 3/1 suggests a 25% chance that, let’s face it, is way too optimistic!

The odds are a reflection of probability. Even odds, such as 1/1 or 2.00 pay out the same profit as your stake. They therefore have a 50% probability. Any odds above that have a lower probability, and odds below that have a higher probability.

Here’s a chart with the most common football odds you’re likely to encounter, and the percentage probability of each bet:

As you can see, the shorter the odds, the more likely the bet is to win and the less profit you’ll make. When the odds get longer, you stand to win more profit but the chances of the bet winning are slimmer.

The challenge for football betting fans, then, is to balance profit potential with probability.

If you want to understand how much you could win from a football bet, then why not use Paddy’s bet calculator and see your profit potential?

What is a football acca?

Football accas take betting one step further by introducing an extra layer of risk to your bet. These are combination bets, where each selection you make needs to win, in order for you to win the overall bet.

For example, you could bet on these three teams to win their individual matches:

  • £5 on Manchester City to beat Bournemouth at 1.62
  • £5 on Chelsea to beat Bournemouth at 1.60
  • £5 on Fulham to beat West Ham at 2.40

If you were to bet £5 individually on each of the three games then you’d be risking £15 overall. Say you win each bet, you’d earn:

  • £8.08
  • £8
  • £12

= £28.08

That’s a decent return, right? Well, look what happens when you throw all three picks into one big accumulator and bet £15 again.

Your potential return increases from £28.08 to £93.05.

Why does this happen? Because all three bets need to win in order for you to win your accumulator. One defeat and the entire bet goes up in smoke – including your winning selections.

So, are accas worth it? Absolutely. They’re a core component of football betting because they give punters more flexibility to bet on heavy favourites – such as Manchester City and Chelsea in our example – and target bigger profits from those games.

Why live football odds change

Live football odds are another form of betting odds at Paddy Power that can truly transform your football watching experience. Whereas pre-match odds and outright odds give you the chance to bet before games, live odds throw you into the heart of the action.

Live odds change all the time and they reflect the flow of the game you’re following. So, for example, if England score early in a World Cup game against Belgium, their odds to win will fall to reflect that increased likelihood.

If Belgium equalise a few minutes later then the odds will shift again.

Live football odds rely on complex data and match tracking software to provide prices that accurately reflect potential outcomes during a game. For bettors, live betting is often preferred because you can follow the action and time your selections to the exact moment.

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