Football betting strategies come in plenty of different forms but they all aim to deliver the same outcome: more winning bets.
It doesn’t matter if you’re a newcomer to football betting or an experienced player, there’s never a bad time to begin or hone your strategy for betting on football.
Your plan could be as simple as limiting your bet sizes when you lose. Or, you might have a cash out strategy that pays out small but regular amounts.
Whatever your aims, unearthing the best football betting strategy requires a bit of time and effort, as well as a lot of perseverance. And that’s where Paddy is here to help.
Below are six of the simplest football betting systems you can pick up today.
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Six Football Betting Strategies
Getting on football requires a strategy if you want to get good at it
Each of the below bet strategies offer varying levels of risk but, if followed correctly, aim to deliver a consistent level of profit per bet.
1. Stake-Minded Betting
Let’s start with a simple one. Football betting carries risk and one of the best strategies to reduce risk is to reduce your stake size. Betting small amounts, even if it’s on wild outcomes, reduces the risk of you running out of funds. Of course, you should never bet more than you can afford.
Football is great for stake-minded betting because punters can wager small amounts on high odds, and there’s always a chance those odds will pay out. That’s because football has a tendency to produce more shocks than other sports.
Why’s that? Well, the value of a single goal is huge. It can completely change a result, whereas one three-pointer in basketball, or a try in rugby, doesn’t carry the same game-changing value.
Shocks don’t just mean underdogs winning big games. Betting small amounts on defenders to score, red cards in friendlies and substitutes scoring can often carry high odds that, with a low stake, can still pay out good sums without risking your entire pot.
Double Chance Accas
The Double Chance is the perfect bet for risk-conscious punters who want to back two of the three match result outcomes. But if you’re on the hunt for higher odds then Double Chance Accas can swiftly become your friend.
With Double Chance Accas, you can build large wagers where each individual bet carries low risk. Betting on favourites to win or draw across a seven- or eight-fold acca can greatly boost your odds with a tiny stake.
For example, you could bet on the following double chances in the opening rounds of a World Cup:
– Netherlands to win/draw Senegal
– England to win/draw Iran
– Wales to win/draw USA
– Mexico to win/draw Poland
– France to win/draw Australia
– Spain to win/draw Costa Rica
– Belgium to win/draw Canada
There is, of course, risk here. In 2022 Argentina won the World Cup but only after losing their opening game 2-1 to Saudi Arabia.
Football Index Betting
Index betting involves players setting themselves a monetary level in their betting account.
When you win a bet and go above that level, you withdraw their winnings. When you lose a bet and go below, they reduce your average stake.
This is a cautious approach to football betting because you never double down, or use your profits to fuel future bets. You always revert back to the line you set.
For example, you set a £20 index in your Paddy Power account. You bet £2 on England to beat Germany at odds of 2.50, and win. You now have £25 in your account. So, you withdraw £5 and your balance reverts back to £20.
You keep placing £2 bets and, when you win, you withdraw. Eventually you lose a bet and fall to £18 in your balance, underneath your index. But, rather than trying to spend your way out of the deficit, you reduce your stake by half.
Your next bet is £1. If you win, you might go back over your £20 index and can start betting £2 again. If you lose, you cut your stake again to 50p, and then 25p, and so on until you win again.
With this method, you can still chase big wins without risking your entire balance and get into the habit of withdrawing funds regularly.
Backing Home Underdogs
Home teams win 46% of their home games in the Premier League, while draws and defeats are split roughly equally at around 27%. Over the course of a season home underdogs will generally win more games that they shouldn’t win, than they do on the road.
It goes to reason, then, that home underdogs are worth backing more than away underdogs if you’re seeking an against-the-odds bet.
You can bet on almost anything in football
Value Comparison
Having a knowledge of football is key to value comparison betting. Here, it’s all about looking at the odds, figuring out the implied probability, and comparing that data to your own knowledge of the sport.
For example, Scotland might be 4.00 underdogs to beat Spain in a Nations League game. However, what the odds don’t show is that Scotland are on a three-game winning streak, need to win to avoid relegation, and Spain’s squad for this international break is missing a load of key injured players.
The value is in Scotland at 4.00 because, as you realise, their chances of winning the game are actually better than the 25% chance the odds give them.
Luckily there’s no shortage of football betting resources to help you spot those hidden value prices. At Paddy Power you can get football tips and football news every day of the year!
Negative Early Goal Response
A great football betting strategy when following live games is to react to early goals. Punters can make big profit waiting for the odds of the team that concedes early to inflate, before placing a hefty stake on them.
Of course, you’re then relying on that team to overturn a one-goal deficit. But if it’s the favourites who conceded early then they’re more likely to do this.
For example, Algeria score within the opening 15 minutes in a World Cup clash with Brazil. Brazil’s original match odds of 1.50 inflate to 2.00. Now there’s more profit to chase, even if the odds are still slim for a team trailing by a goal. You back Brazil to win, and in the end they run out deserved 4-1 victors.
If you prefer not to react in the live odds then a different bet can be to back a team to win and concede, so you cover both aspect of the negative goal response.
Negative goal response effectively backs the losing team to win the game at better odds than if you backed them at the start.
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