Rule 4 is most commonly associated with horse racing betting but in recent years golf punters have become familiar with the term, and what it means for their bets.
The idea of Rule 4 in betting is to adjust the odds for all existing competitors if someone withdraws before the action can start. It’s common in horse racing because a horse can sometimes withdraw just minutes before the start of the race.
And the same thing can happen in golf, although not as often.
This guide will take you through the golf Rule 4 betting rules, so you know what happens if there’s suddenly a big change to the line-up.
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Rule 4 golf betting
Rule 4 in golf betting relates to instances where a player withdraws from a tournament or competition after being included in the golf odds. If a player withdraws without hitting a ball then the odds for all other competitors won’t be accurate.
Of course, it doesn’t really matter if a 200/1 outsider at the US Open withdraws before the tournament begins. In this instance, the frontrunners priced at 4/1, 7/1 and 9/1 won’t see their odds change.
But what if that 4/1 favourite withdrew? Suddenly the odds on the 7/1 second-favourite will shrink. Bookmakers honour bets on the original price of 7/1 but are permitted to apply Rule 4 to slightly shorten the odds, relative to the price of the withdrawn player.
Learn about Rule 4 in horse racing here!
Why Rule 4 in golf betting exists
Rule 4 in golf betting exists because so much of the sport is focused on individuals winning tournaments. In this sense it’s a lot like horse racing, where you back an individual – not a team – for success.
Golf doesn’t often have key players withdraw on the eve of tournaments but it can happen. This is particularly relevant in the minor tours, where there may be one or two heavy favourites and a field of outsiders. If one of those favourites is injured or plays in another event at short notice then Rule 4 can kick in.
What happens to my bet?
If you’ve bet on an outsider at 12/1 to win the Open, only for the 6/1 favourite to withdraw, then Rule 4 will likely apply. Here, Paddy Power will work out the percentage deduction in your winnings relative to the odds.
In our instance, a 6/1 withdrawal usually results in a 10% reduction in all overall winnings. Rule 4 generally doesn’t apply to anyone withdrawing at a price of 14/1 or over.
Golf rule 4 example
Here are some examples of golf Rule 4s in action:
You plan to back Ludvig Aberg to win the US PGA Championship at odds of 15.00. Second-favourite Rory McIlroy withdraws before the action begins, which causes Aberg’s odds to crash to 11.00.
Your original bet is still honoured but Rule 4 kicks in. A percentage is deduced from your winnings if Aberg does, indeed, win the tournament.
In this instance, McIlroy’s price of 11.00 would likely result in a 5% deduction for the other players. So, your £10 winning wager on Aberg pays back £133 profit, instead of £140.
How to calculate Rule 4 in golf
It’s not exactly easy to calculate Rule 4 because the percentage cut of your profit depends on the odds of the withdrawn player. Paddy’s rustled up a Rule 4 table to show you roughly how it works.
Now, this table is based on horse racing betting but the same can apply to golf.
As you can see, the size of the percentage deduction is relative to the odds of the withdrawn runner (or, in our case, the withdrawn golfer). Any withdrawal priced at odds of 1/9 (1.11) or shorter results in a 90% deduction on the rest of the field.
However, you only receive a modest 5% cut if the withdrawal is priced between 10/1 (11.00) and 14/1 (15.00). Rule 4 doesn’t apply to anyone who withdraws above 14/1.
Now, it’s highly unlikely any player is going to be priced at odds-on to win a tournament. However, what is more possible is for a player to be priced between 4/1 (5.00) and 14/1 (15.00) being forced to withdraw.
So, this is the odds window that is more pertinent to golf, compared to horse racing. A 4/1 (5.00) withdrawal would cost you 20% of your winnings if Rule 4 is applied.
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