There are plenty of golf betting strategies out there but you’ll soon discover not all are tailor-made for your preferences.
Punters who prefer low-risk bets will often choose alternative tactics from those seeking windfall profits. Of course, every golf betting strategy is designed to win money but none of them are foolproof.
In this guide, Paddy takes you through four options to help you find the best golf betting strategy. These tactics can be used at the majors or during low-key tournaments. So long as Paddy Power has the odds, you can use them to your advantage!
Golf Betting Strategies
Our four golf betting strategies range in complexity, from simple to intricate. If you’re new to the sport then we advise you read our golf betting for beginners guide and get accustomed with the odds.
If you’ve bet on golf before and have a good grasp of how tournaments play out then follow us!
1. Acca the cut
The first golf strategy that anyone can follow is to build an accumulator around the cut. The cut in golf is the midway point that chops the field in two. The lowest-scoring half are literally cut away and don’t play the final two days.
Some golfers will struggle to make the cut, while others can be relied upon to breeze into the Saturday round. It’s these short-odds players who are the focus of your strategy here.
The idea is simple. You build a large accumulator of players who you know are certain to make the cut. Individually, the golf odds will be minuscule and not worth betting on. However, combine them into a big acca and suddenly your odds will balloon.
EXAMPLE: You bet on the top eight players at the Masters to make the cut. Their odds range from 1.02 to 1.14, which means it’s pointless to bet on them individually. Combined, their odds come to 1.93. A £100 almost doubles your money, making it a viable bet for eight outcomes that are almost certain to happen
2. Top 20 outsiders
While acca betting on the cut focuses on the favourites, Top 20 betting should be reserved for outsiders. Most PGA Tour events feature around 150 players, while a major like the Masters cuts the field down to 90.
An outsider, even in a field of 90, can carry odds as high as 31.00 just to finish in the top 20. This is where you can exploit the odds and nail a big windfall off a small stake.
Pro golfers at this level can all shoot at par around a course. It’s only bad decisions, bad luck, and bad form that prevent players from challenging those top spots.
The logic goes that a player cannot fluff their lines every event, otherwise they will fall off the tour. Therefore, outsiders are artificially over-priced.
We’re not saying you back an outsider to win a tournament (although this happens more times than you think). The strategy is to find an outsider who suits the course, has delivered a few good recent results, and is well priced to finish in the Top 20.
EXAMPLE: Phil Mickelson is a three-time Masters champion and is guaranteed to be at Augusta each year. The veteran has finished in the Top 20 on 18 occasions* over his career and still has the talent to do it again. In 2024 Mickelson is 5.00 to nail a Top 20 finish, which is a huge price considering his legacy here.
3. Track groups live
A more immersive golf betting strategy is to follow groups across the course and bet on who will win said group. Most tournaments send players out in groups of three for the opening two rounds, and then pairs for the Saturday and Sunday.
This means you can wager on who will shoot the lowest score in a group over the course of a round.
It also means you can follow the players and use the live betting markets to lock in profit no matter who tops the group. All you need to do is time your bets and ensure your stakes are the correct size.
EXAMPLE: You follow a group involving Corey Conners (1.20 to win the group), Brian Harman (3.00) and Rickie Fowler (4.00). You bet on Fowler at the start and his shoots two quick birdies. Harman’s price rises to 5.00 so you then back him, while Conners then moves to 4.50 after ending the fifth hole two over par. You then back Conners and suddenly you’re in a position where you win profit regardless of the final result.
4. 80/20 your bets
80/20 betting is more commonly found in horse racing, where you split your stake between two selections. The idea is to bet 80% of your stake on a short-odds favourite and 20% on an outsider. So long as one wins, you’ll win profit.
Well, you can do the same in golf – although it’s a little more complicated. That’s because there are sometimes more than 100 players in a tournament, while there’s usually between six and 16 horses in a race.
So, how do you effectively place an 80/20 in golf? By using 80% of your stake on a frontrunner to win Each Way, and 20% on an outsider to make the Top 20.
This way you don’t risk your entire pot on one player and you don’t even need a selection to win the whole thing. You’re covered for multiple eventualities and you stand to win good profit.
EXAMPLE: You have £100 to bet on the Masters. You wager £40 on Jon Rahm to win Each Way at 11.00. Your total stake is £80 and you stand to win £560 if Rahm wins, or £120 if he places. You also bet £20 on Tiger Woods to finish in the Top 20 at 5.00. If both bets win, you could land as much as £660.
*correct as of 2024
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