Can you remember that time you were down the pub with your mates talking about that great 0-0 draw?
Of course not. Goals are what the beautiful game is all about, and we love them: from 30-yard thunderbolts to three-yard shinners, they all count. And the thought of the old pig’s bladder being slammed in the onion bag is what tempts millions of football fans around the world to part with their hard-earned cash and watch the game each and every weekend.
Some games have goals written all over them – the stats tell us that, or even our intuition sometimes. With other matches, well, you’d have more end-to-end entertainment alphabetising your spice rack than the ‘action’ on the field.
From a betting perspective, the good news is that you can make your opinions count when it comes to the goal tally in a specific game. You can wager on a variety of different markets, although the Over/Under 2.5 Goals category remains the most popular.
But Paddy, you can’t score half a goal!?
It’s true, but read on and we will explain everything you need to know about this fantastic betting market in which goals – or a lack of them – are the only currency you need to worry about.
How Does the Over/Under 2.5 Goals Market Work?
In short, a match with three or more goals in it is a winner as far as Over 2.5 Goals is concerned, and those encounters with two or fewer goals win the ‘unders’ wager. So it really doesn’t matter who wins the game or what the final score is, you’re simply looking for your chosen goal count to come good.
Here’s how the Over/Under market looked for Liverpool vs Manchester City:
As you can see, you are not restricted to just the 2.5 goal line. You can increase or decrease your expectations whether you think the match in question is going to be a box-to-box slobberknocker or a wet weekend in (insert British seaside town here).
Over 2.5 Goals Probability
Using stats from the last completed Premier League season of 2018/19, we can see the opportunities that await punters in the goals markets:
- Over 1.5 Goals – 80%
- Over 2.5 Goals – 54%
- Over 3.5 Goals – 32%
As you can see, just over half of games breached the famous 2.5 goal line and one-in-three saw a quartet of goals or more. And of course, some teams skew those stats one way or the other. The average goal count in Newcastle United’s games in 2018/19 was 2.37, whereas in Bournemouth’s matches their fans were treated to a whopping 3.32 goals per 90 minutes.
Clearly, picking your selections wisely is key to success in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Strategy
The best way to profit in this market is to simply back games where the stats suggest goals are either likely or unlikely based on what has gone before.
So, during the 2018/19 campaign, Bournemouth and Arsenal’s games saw more goals than any other Premier League sides. When they meet then, we would assume that the open, attacking styles of the teams would lend themselves to a goal-laden affair (their encounters ended 2-1 and 5-1 to Arsenal, incidentally, so Over 2.5 Goals would have hit the spot).
The opposite is true in matches which feature more conservative outfits: think Newcastle, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace and the like. When these cagey operators clash, fewer goals are expected.
As far as the ‘overs’ is concerned, another option to consider is where we think a dominant team will give their opponents a good spanking, and thus clear the 2.5 goal line single-handedly.
One other strategy would be to take the ‘contrarian’ view, which is higher risk but can deliver more handsome rewards.
Fire up the Over/Under 2.5 Goals coupon on the Paddy Power site and you will see a list of prices:
There are some games where our number-crunchers believe that goals will flow; others, not so much.
But is there value in taking the opposite position? In a game where goals are anticipated, what happens if key attacking players on either side are injured, suspended or have lost form? In low-scoring encounters, what if defensive lynchpins are absent or the game is really important in a promotion or relegation battle?
Occasionally, it pays to go against the grain.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals in-Play Strategy
For all the information you might glean pre-match from the stats, sometimes football matches simply don’t pan out as expected. From Leicester’s 9-0 drubbing of Southampton to Liverpool and Manchester City’s (in)famous 0-0 stalemate – when most was expecting goals galore, the beautiful game has a habit of surprising….and that’s why we love it!
It’s one reason why betting in-play is often a smart ploy, and especially where goals-based wagers are concerned.
Click on a live match on our site and you will see plenty of interesting statistics on how a game is panning out: shots, attacks, possession and so on. Keep your peepers peeled for the yellow and red card icons too as these can have a bearing on the attacking intent, or otherwise, of a team. Sometimes, you will see matches where goals look to be a given, and so you can have a flutter based on the action unfolding before your very eyes.
How to Place Over/Under 2.5 Goals with Paddy Power
- When you click on the Football tab on Paddy’s site, you have a number of different options.
- Hit Popular or Today and you will be taken to a variety of matches kicking off within the next few hours or days.
- Find the ones that tickle your fancy, and you will see the ‘Over/Under’ options listed.
- In-Play we have already spoken about, and with the Tournaments header you can seek out a specific competition to bet on.
- And if you want to get elbow-deep into some goals-based action quicker, select the Coupons tab and you will find a page dedicated to the majesty of the Overs and Unders.
At Paddy Power, we love goals of all shapes and sizes – they’re what get Gary Lineker and Alan Shearer excited on Match of the Day every week. Most football fans have their opinions on those games where they expect goals to fly in, and often the stats will support those arguments.
We make it a breeze to bet on goals markets in games taking place all over the globe, so you can wave goodbye to old-fashioned 1-X-2 betting, give VAR the Vs and watch on as your favourite players hit the back of the net and bring your bets home.