We’re off to Surrey, England, for this week’s Golf betting tips as the Wentworth Club hosts the BMW PGA Championship.
Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy leads the winner market, but our golf tipster, Ben Smith, reckons after yet another disappointment on the final day at last weekend’s Irish Open, there’s better value to be found elsewhere.
Let’s get into his BMW PGA Championship betting tips.
Golf betting tips
Tommy Fleetwood to win
Tom McKibbin to win (each-way)
Ryan Fox – Top Oceania
The third of five Rolex Series events in 2024 takes place at Wentworth this week as nine of the world’s top 30 players are part of a 126-man field travelling to Surrey for the 70th edition of the BMW PGA Championship.
This par 72, 7,267-yard course was transformed in 2016, with bunkers removed and altered, and greens relaid with pure bentgrass.
Since the renovations, the cream has generally risen to the top at this tournament. Alex Noren lifted the title to move into the world’s top 10 in 2017 before Francesco Molinari won the following year prior to his Open Championship success.
Former Masters champion Danny Willett won in 2019, and subsequent victors Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, and Ryan Fox were all towards the top of the betting board.
Tommy Fleetwood to win
Rory McIlroy is the favourite to triumph at Wentworth for the second time, but there were shades of his US Open collapse as he failed to close out the Irish Open on Sunday, so I’d rather take a chance on Tommy Fleetwood, whose overall game is in fantastic shape.
Winning in Virginia Water requires a complete set of attributes, and the Englishman has displayed exactly that this year. Fleetwood’s only win this year came at the Dubai Invitational in January, a competition that began a run of 21 events in which he gained strokes putting in 15, around the green in 16, on approach in 15, and off the tee in 17. His driving accuracy was below average in just three of those competitions.
It has been astounding consistency from the 33-year-old, and he looks set to build on his sixth-place finish here in 2023.
Tom McKibbin (each-way)
A tough week at the Scottish Open in July halted the momentum of Tom McKibbin, who had been one of the most dependable players on the DP World Tour for the first half of 2024.
The Northern Irishman ranks seventh for strokes gained off the tee on tour this year, and while his weaknesses on and around the greens have held him back somewhat, he was positive about his short game as he battled to make the cut in his home tournament last week.
It was a similar story at Wentworth a year ago. A 69 on Friday allowed the Northern Irishman to play the weekend, and his greens in regulation stats improved as the competition went on.
A relatively high price is being offered on the youngster this week, which is perhaps understandable given his recent results, but he has the talent to contend on this course and is worth an each-way look.
Ryan Fox – Top Oceania
Adam Scott arrives in England in excellent form, but I was surprised to see him as such a heavy favourite in the Top Oceania market over Fox, who held off some of the biggest superstars in the sport to win last year’s BMW PGA Championship.
The New Zealander has missed his last two cuts but gained strokes in all key areas besides putting, which was atrocious at both the Wyndham Championship and Irish Open.
Fox’s approach play has been more than adequate, so as long as he avoids a disastrous display with the flat stick on a course where he ranked second in putting last year, he can upset Scott in this market and see off the two outsiders Jason Scrivener and Daniel Hillier.
BMW PGA Championship betting tips
Tommy Fleetwood to win
Tom McKibbin to win (each-way)
Ryan Fox – Top Oceania
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