Open Championship Betting Tips
Paddy Power is paying out on the Top 10 places in the win & each-way markets before Thursday’s tee off.
First Round Leader: Chris Kirk & Brian Harman
Top English Player: Jordan Smith
To Miss the Cut: Justin Thomas
Top 20 Finish: Brooks Koepka
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
With our main team bets in place for the Open Championship, it is time to turn our attention to the raft of ‘specials’ markets that Paddy has priced up and we’ll begin by taking a look at Thursday’s First Round Leader market.
1. First Round Leader
The weather forecast is key, specifically the wind, so with steady breezes predicted throughout day one I will hedge my bets and take one from the morning wave and one from the afternoon. I’ll star with Chris Kirk who tees off at 8.47am.
The American who has battled with well-documented mental health issues over recent years is enjoying a really strong season, the highlight of, which has been a win at the Honda Classic. This event which has always linked really strongly to the Open Championship. Furthermore, Kirk has an eye catching CV over the years at other coastal tracks including a win at what is now the RSM Classic, so we know he is more than comfortable in the wind.
A look at all of Kirk’s stats for this season tells us that he is gaining strokes in all the key departments so he has the type of solid all-round game, which can thrive at Royal Liverpool.
After a slight blip in form, Kirk has produced two solid efforts in his last two starts finishing 14th and 21st and he looks good value for a quick start on Thursday.
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Another American who could just spring a surprise this week is Brian Harman who tees off at 1.48pm.
The left hander has bounced back to form of late with three top 12 finishes in his last three starts including at the Scottish Open last week.
Harman has really taken to links golf over the past couple of years finishing 19th and sixth in the last two Open’s, so will be relishing another crack at the Claret Jug.
Harman sits 14th on Tour in Driving Accuracy and has the tools to plot his way round Hoylake. At 31st in round-one scoring on the PGA Tour he clearly enjoys Thursdays.
This latter point is backed up by the fact that his last four Thursday efforts have been 65 66 68 and 67. I am keen on him to get out of the blocks quickly again this week.
2. Top English Player Market
There are two obvious favourites in Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton. With Matt Fitzpatrick talking down his chances this week already and Justin Rose not having the best of records in the Open for a player of his calibre, I am happy to take a chance on Jordan Smith, particularly as Paddy is paying to four each-way places in this market.
A winner again on the DP World Tour last year, Smith is one of the straightest tee-to-green players on the DP World Tour, ranking 13th in accuracy and first in greens-in-regulation this season. Those qualities should serve him well this week on Hoylake’s tight lay-out.
In the midst of a really solid season, Smith was a fine 20th in the US Open last month and having produced a strong week in Scotland finishing T12th last weekend. I expect him to go well again now.
3. To Miss the Cut
One player who appeals for a weekend off is Justin Thomas.
The two-time PGA Champion has really struggled this year with his long game numbers regressing from their normal impeccable levels and his putter completely misbehaving.
While there have been some flashes of form, notably at the Travelers three starts back, he has missed three of his past five cuts. Meanwhile in the Majors this year he has had the weekend off at two of the three to date. Add that to a fairly underwhelming record at the Open in general and purely at the price this looks the value play.
4. Top 20 Finish
I am finding it hard to fathom why Brooks Koepka sits at odds against in this market and I can’t leave him unbacked.
The five-time Major champion has been back to his best in the biggest of events this year – bagging the PGA and finishing no worse than 17th in the three Majors to date. If we excuse him the missed cut last year at St Andrews when at his lowest ebb, he has four top 10 finishes in his last five Open starts before that.
A win for Koepka would be no big shock and at the very least, I expect another big Major performance.
Open Championship Betting Tips
Paddy Power is paying out on the Top 10 places in the win & each-way markets before Thursday’s tee off.
First Round Leader: Chris Kirk & Brian Harman
Top English Player: Jordan Smith
To Miss the Cut: Justin Thomas
Top 20 Finish: Brooks Koepka
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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