Masters tips: 33/1 shot features in Martin Matthews’ 4 Special Bets for 2023

Our Golf tipster Martin Matthews looks for some value in our Special Bets for this year's US Masters.


Masters Betting Tips


First Round Leader: Jon Rahm, Jason Day
Top Debutant: Kurt Kitayama
Top LIV Player: Patrick Ree
Top 30 Finish: Russell Henley

With our main outright bets all in place for this week’s Masters it’s time to turn our attention to the side markets, where, as always, Paddy Power has priced up plenty for us to look at.

First Round Leader

So let’s start things off by focusing on the First Round Leader. Looking at the weather forecast, we look like we’re in for a week of disruption in general with the possibility that round one could run into Friday. Wind does not look like being a huge issue on the opening day. From that point of view then I’ll hedge my bets and take one each from the AM and PM waves in this market starting with Jon Rahm who tees off at 10.42am local time.

I have shied away from the ‘big three’ in the outright betting market this week predominantly because their single figure odds give very little value. In this market though we have prices for this trio that appeal far more on an each-way basis and in Rahm we have a player who has been hugely productive on Thursdays this season.

Currently third on tour in day one scoring, Rahm has opened with two rounds of 64 and two of 65 in six starts this year, while four top tens in his last five visits to Augusta show he is more than comfortable around here. 

The Spaniard looks primed for another quick start and I’m happy to jump onboard.


    Next up I will take Jason Day who heads out at 12.48pm local time.

    The Aussie has been resurgent this year finishing no worse than 19th on tour. Add this to his tremendous Augusta record, which boasts four top tens including a runner-up finish and it is easy to see why he is on many shortlists coming into the week.

    Without a trophy since 2018 it may be a big ask for him to return to the winners enclosure after such a long absence in the biggest of events, having missed out on Augusta last year he will be chomping at the bit to get going and I can see him getting out of the gates quickly.

    Top Debutant

    Moving on and in the Top Debutant market, Kurt Kitayama catches the eye. There’s undoubtedly some stiff competition here and I am a big fan of the player who heads up this market Sahith Theegala, however I am struggling to fathom why he, and indeed Mito Pereira who now plies his trade on the LIV circuit, are two points shorter than Kitayama.

    Kitayama landed the title at the prestigious Bay Hill event recently fending off a world class field while last time out he again performed superbly to make the last eight at the Matchplay.

    Occasionally wayward off the tee but with a strong approach game, Augusta should suit Kitayama and having won on the DP World Tour in tough conditions this week’s bad weather won’t faze him.

    Top LIV Player

    Another market that catches my eye is that of Top LIV player and my pick here is Patrick Reed.

    Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith understandably head things up here, however Johnson has played very little golf this year while Smith by his own admission is struggling relatively at the moment after taking an extended break over the winter.

    Reed contrastingly has looked to play as much as he can this year on the DP World Tour alongside his LIV colleagues and he pushed Rory McIlroy really close in Dubai at the beginning of year.

    Not the type of character to wilt under any animosity this week, if anything Reed will thrive on it, and while a returning-to-form Brooks Koepka who won on the LIV Tour last weekend was also appealing, it’s the 2018 Champion here who gets my vote.

    Top 30 Finish

    Finally, I will turn my attention to the Top 30 Finish market and side with Russell Henley at odds against. A winner again on the Tour this season, Henley who hails from Georgia, has cracked the Top 30 on each of his last four visits here so he certainly knows his way around the premises.

    The Georgia Bulldog has struggled slightly since his win in the Fall, however he was much improved at the Players recently when finishing 19th and I expect another strong week from him at a venue where his high quality approach play can shine.

    All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

    Masters Betting Tips

    First Round Leader: Jon Rahm, Jason Day
    Top Debutant: Kurt Kitayama
    Top LIV player: Patrick Ree
    Top 30 finish: Russell Henley

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