We’ve reached the 54 hole stage of the PGA Championship and we have a leaderboard, which, while lacking the game’s biggest names who headed the betting market coming into the week, promises to give us a fascinating final day’s action.
Top of the tree heading into Sunday sitting on nine-under and with a three-shot lead is Mito Pereira.
Pereira’s is a name that featured in one of our previews earlier this week. However, typically, it was at three-figure odds in the First Round Leader market!
TULSA, OKLAHOMA – MAY 21: Mito Pereira of Chile reacts to his putt on the 18th green during the third round of the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills Country Club on May 21, 2022 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
One of my reasons for siding with the Chilean was that I felt his strong tee to green game would be a great fit for Southern Hills and this has proved to be the case as he sits third for the week in this category.
What has really propelled the 27-year-old forward though is after a tougher opening day on the greens, which frustratingly from our point of view meant he finished Thursday in a nine-way tie for seventh, he has putted the lights out on Friday and Saturday to lead the field for the week with the flatstick.
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As we know though, Sundays bring a whole different pressure and with Pereira yet to win on the PGA Tour it is a massive ask for him to keep the form on the greens going when it is normally the part of the game that troubles him the most and he is not for me today at short odds.
If the leader is to falter the two players who are in the best position to capitalize starting three back on six-under are Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris, and with Zalatoris’ notoriously suspect putting starting to let him down yesterday it is the Englishman I like the most.
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Fitzpatrick has been in superb form this year, most recently finishing runner up at the Wells Fargo on another tough par-70 layout, and he has kept that momentum going this week on a course that has played to his all-round strengths and ability to prosper when conditions are a tough grind.
Unusually, none of the four players in the final two pairings today have posted a previous win on the PGA Tour. However, Fitzpatrick is a seven-time winner on the DP World Tour and I expect him to make that experience count today and bag his first Major.
Matthew Fitzpatrick to win
Looking at the final day’s two-ball pairings and the first one to catch my eye is Gary Woodland against Sam Burns who tees off at 18.25 UK Time.
Burns is a player on the up and who will undoubtedly be contending for one of the game’s biggest trophies soon, but Woodland has already been there and bought the tee-shirt and with his game starting to fire very nicely again of late I do feel the 2019 US Open Champion is being somewhat dismissed here at the odds.
Woodland has been stronger than Burns from tee to green this week and with this being unchartered territory for Burns in his career to date I am happy to risk the more experienced man here.
Gary Woodland to beat Sam Burns
Next up I will side with Max Homa against Lucas Herbert when they tee off at 18.35 UK Time.
Homa, who bagged his fourth PGA Tour title at the Wells Fargo a couple of weeks ago, has been really solid this week shooting par or better on all three days, and with him leading the field in approach play it is only a slightly balky putter that has stopped him from contending.
Herbert, by contrast, has struggled from tee to green and it is the putter, for which he ranks second on the week, which has kept him going. I expect another solid effort from Homa today though and the American looks the play at the odds here.
Max Homa to beat Lucas Herbert
I’ll finish our treble by taking Abraham Ancer to see off Seamus Power in the 19.15 UK time two ball.
Ancer possesses one of the most accurate tee-to-green games on tour and like many of the others at the top end of the leaderboard those strengths have helped him flourish this week.
A winner at the WGC St Jude event last year and with three top-20s in Majors already, including an eighth in the PGA last year, Ancer clearly has the game for the big stage and with Power’s superb run of form from earlier in the year having cooled off somewhat of late I expect the Mexican to make his greater experience in the bigger events count today.
Abraham Ancer to beat Seamus Power
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