Golf tips: Open Championship best bets from Paddy’s in-form trader – including a 28/1 play

Our golf trader Iain McLaughlin picked the 30/1 winner at the Irish Open earlier this month and is back for more.


* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Top Picks – Patrick Cantlay and Paul Casey

Patrick Cantlay is coming into the final major of the year in really good form. He was a fortunate winner at the Memorial tournament last month with John Rahm testing positive for coronavirus. He followed that up by finishing 15th at the US Open and every facet of his game looks to be in order heading into this one.

He has a flat, low and penetrating ball flight so he’ll be able to control his ball in windy conditions which will suit at Royal St George’s. He has the patience to stick around the top of the leaderboard on a tricky course. He was 12th in his Open debut in 2018 and 41st in 2019 but since then he’s progressed and been a top ten player in the world. I like his chances of landing his first major championship.


Paul Casey can go really well here. He was fourth in the PGA Championship and he followed that up with a seventh-place finish at the US Open. He’s got some strong major form. His figures from tee to green have been really good in the last six weeks.

He’s in the top couple of percentage when it comes to ball striking. He has a slightly inconsistent record at the Open Championship and his best finish was 11th but I think he does better than that this week and he could win it all.

E/W Value – Joaquin Niemann, Robert MacIntyre, Kevin Kisner, Padraig Harrington

Joaquin Niemann is my first value play as he’s a player who will be suited by Open Championship conditions. He plays well in the wind, has a low ball flight and he’s been in good form recently too. He’s developing into a top 20 player in the world and he’s a big price which is a bit of an insult to him.

I’ve touted Robert MacIntyre as a future Open champion before and he can go close this week. His Open debut came in 2019 where he finished sixth. He’s a much-improved player since then and he’s a winner on the European tour. He grew up playing in Scotland so he should be comfortable with the course. He should be able to bring that long game into this tournament and if he’s decent on the greens he should be contending on Sunday.

Kevin Kisner looks to be suited to the Open Championship and he’s in good form leading into the event. He was fifth in the Travelers Championship and eighth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s a good each-way bet at huge odds.

Padraig Harrington is my final outsider pick, who is a man built for the Open Championship. It’s the one major when players who are a little bit older can still contend. Harrington relishes the grind and the conditions. It’s also links golf which is where he seems to excel. He’s in decent form too and he was 18th in Scotland last week. It would be emotional if he wins it for the third time on Sunday.

First Round Leader – Kevin Kisner

Kevin Kisner has a really good Open record and he’s made four cuts in a row. He’s prone to a first-round lead on the PGA Tour and he could take his chance this week.

With these majors, the top end of the market are looking to get in position on Thursday and plot their way into the weekend. The bigger priced guys know it’s a chance to get a first-round lead and see if they can kick on. Kisner has that mentality and he can get a fast start.

Three To Make The Cut – Paul Casey, Robert MacIntyre, Kevin Kisner

Paul Casey is one of my favourites to win the tournament so hopefully he can make the cut! I’m pretty confident he will. He consistently makes the cut at the Open as he’s suited to the course and the conditions.

Robert MacIntyre is the next one and he hasn’t missed a cut in his professional career yet so that’s a good omen.

Kevin Kisner is in really good form and he’s got a great Open record. He’s made his last four cuts at the Open.

Top 20 Finish – Padraig Harrington

Padraig Harrington‘s Top 20 price looks generous. He’s a two-time winner of the event in 2007 and 2008 – and he’s in good form too. I think he’s going to put up a strong showing this week.

Top 5 Finish – John Rahm

John Rahm is the best player in the world at the moment. He won the US Open last month and he should be suited to an Open Championship test. All the boxes are ticked heading into this one.

Open Championship betting summary:

Top PicksPatrick Cantlay and Paul Casey
E/W ValueJoaquin Niemann, Robert MacIntyre, Kevin Kisner, Padraig Harrington
First Round Leader – Kevin Kisner
Three To Make The CutPaul Casey, Robert MacIntyre, Kevin Kisner
Top 20 FinishPadraig Harrington
Top 5 FinishJohn Rahm


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