Golf tips: Our 18/1 punt to topple Thomas and Koepka at Mayakoba Classic

The tour is down Mexico way this week.

Mayakoba Classic El Camaleon Mexico 2019

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Paddy Power Golf Trader Iain Mclaughlin has cast his eye over the field ahead of the Mayakoba Classic, which is due to get underway at El Camleon on Thursday.

Our man has tipped up an 18/1 punt for the latest PGA Tour event, betting against favourite Justin Thomas and fellow heavyweight Brooks Koepka.

Check out Iain’s chat with PPTV broadcaster James Shortt in the video below.

Main selection – Viktor Hovland

My main selection is Viktor Hovland, who has been in really consistent form over the last couple off months. He’s had four top 15 finishes in his last five starts.

Last time out at the Houston Open his approach play was uncharacteristically poor – he’s usually excellent and he gained strokes in four of his last five events before that. His driving was excellent, gaining nearly five shots on the field, so I’m expecting his approach play to come back to his previous levels.

Another stat which caught my eye, and is really stopping Hovland from getting to the top 10 in the world at the moment, is his chipping. But he gained 3.1 strokes that week at Houston, which was really, really eye-catching.

The Puerto Rico Open, which he won, has very similar course characteristic to El Camaleon. They have very similar green types, so if you’re used to playing there it should put you in good stead. Everything points towards a really strong week for him, and he’s around 20/1.

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Leading contenders – Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka

Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka haven’t been seen here at this event in a while. Justin Thomas has come in as a strong favourite at the 6/1 mark, and I can let him win at that price – I prefer Thomas at around the 14/1 price in the Majors where you’re certain of his motivation. He doesn’t have that much motivation this week and it could almost be a holiday for him in Mexico.

Koepka is another I like to take on in the lesser tournaments. We all know how successful he’s been in major championships, but he’s got double the amount of Majors than he does PGA Tour wins.

That shows you his motivation for those events, so there’s two are ones I would be looking to take on this week.

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Home Challenge – Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz

Local hopes Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz both have strong chances. Ancer played really well for 63 holes of the Masters and then had a poor back nine which dropped him out of the top 10. We haven’t ever had a Mexican champion, which shows a little bit of added pressure for the home players.

Obviously there are no fans, and Carlos Ortiz broke his maiden at the Houston Open with a smattering of fans – maybe 1,000 at the course.

That lack of fans will help these guys at their home event, because they’re not serial winners. Less pressure should see them go well this week.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

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