FedEx Cup leaders don’t have a particularly impressive record in the play-off finale – the Tour Championship that tees off on Friday, but Dustin Johnson is expected to change that this year and could well turn this into a victory parade.
Beginning the week with a two-shot lead over Jon Rahm and more on the rest, Johnson’s form figures of 2-1-2 suggest it will be very difficult to dislodge him from the top of the leaderboard.
His iron play is electric right now, he has plenty of positive East Lake experience, and Johnson will likely convert, albeit at short odds.
The best betting opportunities come from the lowest 72-hole score market, which ignores starting scores, and Tony Finau is the pick of them.
From six back it’s unlikely he’ll reel in Johnson and win the FedEx Cup, and that means he should be able to play with freedom.
Four top-10 finishes across his last six starts tell us he’s one of the form golfers in this field and his best form tends to coincide with tougher conditions. East Lake is long and very much serves up those so he’s entitled to go close.
In his last two appearances at the TOUR Championship, Billy Horschel has finished first and second – only Tiger Woods, in 2018, has beaten him.
That’s an imperious record which comes after a fine debut seventh and confirms his love for a tough, old-school par 70 whose Bermuda greens he simply adores.
Horschel’s last two performances might not look up to much but he felt he got nothing out of some quality play in Chicago. This suits better and he’s too far back to get wrapped up in winning another FedEx Cup.
Joaquin Niemann produced an excellent ball-striking display at the difficult Olympia Fields last week, and that could prove a massive pointer ahead of his East Lake debut.
The young Chilean is a fine driver of the ball who likes to shape his shots, so a long, difficult, old-fashioned course would appear ideal, and he’s another who doesn’t have to worry about the main prize.
His objective will be to climb the leaderboard and bag precious OWGR points, and he’s fancied to do just that thanks to a world-class long-game and soaring confidence.
Our best bets for the Tour Championship
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