You may have played fantasy football before, but Paddy Power Fantasy is different because if your team is sh*te you’re not stuck with them for the season – it’s only for a week!
And you can play daily fantasy across a load of other sports – including everyone’s favourite good-walk-spoiler, golf.
Even better, this week you can enter a £1,000 contest for the 3M Open absolutely FREE!
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Golf is a great fantasy sport to follow because tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. Whether you’re brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered.
Just pick six players under the salary cap, sit back and enjoy a (hopefully profitable) weekend. Full details of points scoring are over on Paddy Power Fantasy.
Who should you have on your team this week though? Well, here are the key stats worth bearing in mind when putting together your course-bound crew:
We’ve got just one year of data for TPC Twin cities, and the field last year wasn’t exactly stellar. Via datagolf.com, the field was about as tough as this year’s Sony Open. Matthew Wolff (-21) did beat out Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa (-20).
In total, there were four rounds of 62 and another of 63 — and 13 of 64, so we need golfers who can go low if this course plays similarly.
Also via datagolf, strokes gained: approach explained 40.6% of the scoring last year, well over the PGA Tour average of 34.7%, and around-the green play and putting were downplayed. Off-the-tee performance pointed to good finishes.
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We saw 12 golfers finish T7 or better, and among the 24 corresponding off-the-tee and approach data points among them, only one (Troy Merritt’s off the tee play) was negative (barely at -0.20). So we need ball-striking, and that’s never a bad place to start anyway. Driving accuracy did show up as a little more important than usual on the Tour average, so I’ll go with that as something to throw in.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 07: Paul Casey of England plays his shot from the third tee during the second round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Monterey Peninsula Country Club on February 07, 2020 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Best of the Best:
Paul Casey ($11,200) – Casey should get some missed-cut hate after he did just that at the Memorial last week. He lost more than four strokes around the green, however, which is quite something. He actually ranked third in per-round strokes gained: off the tee and was positive on approach, as well. The ball-striking is something that can win out. Over his past 50 rounds on Tour, he ranks top-three in both strokes gained: off the tee and strokes gained: approach. The only question for him is the short game, which was less important last year than we typically see.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,500) – Dustin Johnson ($12,400), Brooks Koepka ($12,100), and Tony Finau ($11,600) will all draw attention at the top of the salary table, and it’s justified. They combine for more than 20% of the win equity in the field, based on the betting odds. I frankly prefer Finau due to his recent performance and savings. That being said, Fleetwood rates out better as a winner in my simulations because his tee-to-green game has been better than theirs over the past year and a half. That’s wild to think about. The only problem with Fleetwood is the layoff, as we haven’t seen him since March, but we have seen six top-25 finishes in eight starts from Fleetwood in 2020. You’ll really want to jam in as many of the top five as you can, including Fleetwood.
Mid-range Options:
Doc Redman ($9,900) – Redman’s ball-striking puts him near the top of the field, as he’s 8th in strokes gained: tee to green despite ranking 145th around the green. Yikes. Redman, last week, missed the cut by losing strokes in the short game but added both off the tee and via approach in a really tough Memorial field. That should serve him well at the 3M Open with a field like this. He fits the profile of a potential winner here.
Carlos Ortiz ($9,600) – I’ve been on an Ortiz kick, and it’s because he’s a good tee-to-green player. He finished fifth here a year ago by gaining 9.3 strokes tee to green (seventh-most). Now, he did lose in both ball-striking stats in a tough field at the Memorial, but he’s 17th in strokes gained: tee to green in this field over the past 50 rounds. Ortiz can get a little errant off the tee (110th) but is still a promising pick at this price before things really drop off.
Low-Priced Picks:
Emiliano Grillo ($8,700) – I’ve pretty much quit playing Grillo, but the bottom drops out of this field pretty immediately. He’s 150th or worse in both around-the-green and putting strokes gained but is second in approach, so we have that going for us. The only surface Grillo shows a pulse on when putting is bentgrass. You either go balanced, missing out on the studs, or you embrace a lot of volatility. Grillo leads the field in opportunities gained. That’s all we can ask for.
Tom Hoge ($8,300) – Hoge won’t draw the attention of those who track finishes because he has made one of six cuts since the restart. That’s despite gaining on approach in three of those six (tough fields) and being neutral off the tee (again, in fields with some big hitters). Put that into a field this watered down, and Hoge has the profile to make a cut and be able to do something more. It’s a week to pick three — maybe four — studs to build around and just rotate in the core plays, hoping you hit on the long shots.
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*All odds correct at time of publication
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