You may have played fantasy football before – and used your wildcard three weeks into the season – but Paddy Power Fantasy gives you a chance to play a new fantasy game every week, and across a whole load of other sports. Now is a great time to start, especially with Paddy Power’s FREE £1,000 daily fantasy golf contest for the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week.
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It’s a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team. Here’s a breakdown of fantasy points scoring.
But whether you’re brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered – let’s take a look at some golfers to target this week.
Key Stats for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Good Drive Rate
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass & Poa
- Birdie or Better Rate
This course played easy last year with the cut being -4 and Nate Lashley winning at -25. Strokes gained: off the tee didn’t actually do well to predict the results of the event, as a lot of fairways were hit here, about five percentage points higher than the PGA Tour average, via FantasyNational.
Approach and scoring stats should get us into good position, but we’ll frankly need our golfers to get hot with the putter. That’s never easy to do, but I’m taking care not to punt with bad putters here when I can avoid it.
Stats include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
Best of the Best
Webb Simpson ($12,100) – Simpson is coming off a win – well, he’s coming off a week off due to concerns about COVID – but he won last time out at the RBC Heritage. Neither he nor Bryson DeChambeau ($12,200) played here last year. Still, I think the burden of proof is on you to make the case to fade both of them outright. Are they guaranteed to win? No, not close. However, predicting either of them to bomb is tough. They’re the top-two plays in my stats-only model and the odds-on favourites to win this lukewarm field. I don’t have a strong take either way, but I’ll lean Webb, who is third in approach over the past 50 rounds and ninth in combined putting on poa and bentgrass greens over the past 100 rounds. Frankly, I’ll lean to whomever is expected to be less popular.
Tyrrell Hatton ($11,100) – Hatton has played just once since the hiatus ended, but he finished third at the RBC Heritage. Now, he did that by gaining an abnormal amount of strokes with his putter (9.3), but his irons and approach play overall were pristine before the layoff, and that led to a win at the Arnold Palmer in his last finish before the break. The long-term stats point to Hatton this week.
Others to Consider:
Bryson DeChambeau ($12,200) – Heavy favourite who can run away with it. Bryson/Webb lineups are enticing.
Patrick Reed ($11,200) – All-around game with good win odds for a steep price discount. Was fifth here last year.
Sungjae Im ($10,800) – Finished 21st here last year but was 7th tee to green. Been cold the past two weeks so should be lower owned than normal.
Adam Hadwin ($9,800) – Hadwin’s price is elevated in this weaker field, but he ranks 14th in approach and 12th in greens in regulation gained. He’s 13th in strokes gained: putting over a 100-round sample on bentgrass and poa, so he could easily convert those greens in regulation into birdies.
Harold Varner ($9,300) – Varner ranks fourth in the field in my stats-only model, and he’s fifth in strokes gained: tee to green. That comes along with ranking 17th in birdie or better rate gained. Varner has picked up approach strokes in all three starts. Even with lost strokes on the greens, Varner has finished 19th and 32nd in his two made cuts since returning.
Others to Consider:
Rory Sabbatini ($9,900) – Gained approach strokes in each of his two starts and is 25th tee to green in the field over the past 50 rounds.
Brian Harman ($9,700) – Top-40 in all three tee-to-green stats over the past 50 rounds; missed cut here last year and a missed cut last week, so the allure may have worn off.
Erik Van Rooyen ($9,600) – Elite tee-to-green game who can contend in a shallow field. High-upside play.
Sebastian Munoz ($8,600) – Munoz ranks 26th in strokes gained: off the tee and 23rd in strokes gained: approach, which means that he’s got some of the best ball-striking data in the field. That combines to rank him 10th in birdie or better rate gained and 3rd in opportunities gained, a FantasyNational stat that is essentially birdie chances. Munoz is a viable putter on bent and poa overall and has the best top-10 odds among golfers below $9,000 in my simulations.
Lanto Griffin ($8,600) – Griffin is a bit of an all-around player, and by that, I mean he doesn’t rate out terribly in any of the three tee-to-green stats (he’s 65th or better in all three, the worst being approach at 65th). That being said, I don’t love the other data in his profile, but we have seen him bounce back to 24th last week, and he’s a very good poa putter. He won the weak-field Houston Open back in October.
Others to Consider:
Andrew Putnam ($8,000) – 24th in approach and 18th in putting on these green types, a viable combo for the price.
Tom Hoge ($8,700) – Ranks fifth in approach and ninth in birdie chances over the past 50 rounds but a subpar putter.
Danny Willett ($8,300) – Pure risk/reward play with potential to run hot with irons. Masters winner who is still 37th tee to green.