All-Ireland Football Final: Mayo v Tyrone betting trends and odds shifts in countdown to kick-off

Our punters are leaning west ahead of Saturday’s showpiece at Croke Park.

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Saturday brings us quite the novel pairing, as Mayo and Tyrone meet at 5pm in Croke Park for the 134th final of the All-Ireland Football Championship. We say it’s an unexpected final for a few reasons. Firstly, it is the first time these two counties have ever meet in the game’s showpiece day and only the fifth time in history the decider has been contested between counties from the provinces of Connacht and Ulster.

Also, both of these sides were major underdogs in their respective semi-finals. Mayo came back from the dead to cause the shock of the Championship last time out, seeing off six-in-row champions Dublin in extra-time on a scoreline of 0-17 to 0-14. To make that result even more impressive, James Horan’s men trailed by 10 points to four at half-time and were also five points down with just seven minutes remaining in normal time.

All-Ireland Football Final: Mayo v Tyrone
Saturday, September 11: 17:00
RTÉ Two

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Meanwhile, Tyrone also upset the odds to turnover a much-fancied Kerry outfit in their last four contest a couple of weeks ago. The match had been delayed by a number of weeks after The Red Hands were hugely impacted by an outbreak of Covid-19 in the camp, but Tyrone wrestled a final spot away from The Kingdom by scoring a 3-14 (23) to 0-22 victory after extra-time to advance to Saturday’s final.

Tyrone are looking to win Sam Maguire for just the fourth time ever, while Mayo are seeking to end a curse that stretches all the way back to their last final success in 1951 – in the time since The Westerners have agonisingly been defeated in 10 All-Ireland deciders (1989, 1996, 1997, 2004, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020).

But, who will claim the glory this weekend, you ask? Well, we decided to turn all Marty Morrissey to find some answers, and we paid a visit to the dungeons of Power Tower to ask our GAA traders where the money is going for Saturday’s showpiece.

Who is going to win?

After a bit of gentle arm-twisting, that the Tyrone backs would be proud of, our number crunchers were able to tell us that Mayo have proved far more popular with Paddy Power punters than their adversaries from the northern province. Horan’s men would end 70 years of hurt for the county if the majority of our customers are proven right.

However, our traders have found it hard to separate the pair in the handicap market – setting the margin at just a single point – and they report that bettors are also having a similar problem splitting the two. As such, the draw in the 70 minutes of normal time is also proving to be an extremely attractive prospect for punters ahead of throw-in. Don’t say you were not warned!

Who will raise the first green flag?

Tyrone certainly showed they were not shy of grabbing goals in their semi-final, slamming three past a shell-shocked Kerry. However, it was men in green and red on the lips of our traders when we asked them who customers were eyeing up to score the opening goal on Saturday.

Even though he’s only banged in a single goal in this season’s Championship campaign for Mayo, it’s Tommy Conroy who has seen cash flood in for him to hit the net first in this one. He is known as ‘Tommy Goals’ after all!

Who will be Man Of The Match?

It may not be as big a deal in other sports, but GAA fans love to discuss who the player of the game was in the aftermath of matches up and down the Emerald Isle. So much so in fact, we had to create a market for it! With Saturday’s game coming up quickly on the horizon, it appears that our customers fancy a redemption story for big Aidan O’Shea in the final.

The Mayo colossus was surprisingly substituted in the semi-final win over Dublin, but our traders have had to cut his price in from 14/1 to be the RTÉ Man of the Match such has been his popularity in the market to turn that poor showing around and take the gong in this one.

Who will be Footballer of the Year?

As most GAA supporters know, the sport’s top individual gong usual goes to a player from the team that claims the All-Ireland title in that season, and according to our bean counters, there are two main men in the running. They are Tyrone’s Kieran McGeary and Mayo’s Matthew Ruane.

4/1
Matthew Ruane Footballer of the Year 2021

Ruane – who is Aidan O’Mahony’s pick to be Man Of The Match on Saturday – has impressed in the middle of the park for The Westerners all season, and a good final could be enough to get the Breaffy club man over the line. However, don’t rule out McGeary, the centre back from Pomeroy has been an utter rock for the Feargal Logan and Brian Dooher-led outfit this term. It would be no shock to hear his name read out as the winner either.

8/13
Kieran McGeary Footballer of the Year 2021

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