Roscommon (-2) – 11/10
Armagh, and in particular Kieran McGeeney, may have an impressive qualifier record but Roscommon are operating at a different level to the Orchard County and look terrific value to defy a two-point handicap.
Don’t forget Roscommon traded long odds-on during the second-half of their Connacht final against Galway only to kick wide after wide and completely fluff their lines in the closing stages.
For an hour of that tussle, The Rossies were every bit as good as Galway.
Armagh should be out. They were four points down to Clare entering the final five minutes, but cashed in their get out of jail card to seal a smash and grab raid. They might not get so lucky this time.
Racing Post pick: Roscommon (-2)
Laois to lead at half-time – 7/2
Laois posed Dublin plenty of problems in the first half of the Leinster final and it would come as no surprise to see the O’Moore men make a bright start to this qualifier clash in Navan.
It was a lethargic first half display from Monaghan which cost them a spot in the Ulster final, as they allowed Fermanagh to make the early running and Leitrim popped over two early points last Saturday as well.
It seems Malachy O’Rourke’s charges have a habit of breaking sluggishly from the traps.
If Laois are to have any chance of causing an upset, a big first half performance is a must and they look decent value to lead at half-time.
Racing Post pick: Laois to lead at half-time
Galway (-3) – 10/11
Galway and Kilkenny played out a defence dominating draw seven days ago and now the Leinster Final replay moves to Semple Stadium in Thurles, with Galway likely to improve most from last Sunday.
The main worry about The Tribesmen coming into that game was whether they would be match ready after breezing through the round-robin series and that quickly came to fruition with many of their players looking rusty. They struggled to cope with Kilkenny’s tenacious defence as Padraig Walsh and his fellow backs dominated the aerial ball.
Galway however played straight into Kilkenny’s hands by constantly reverting to this tactic and looking for goals, rather than going back to their long shooting which brought them an All Ireland last year.
The Cats were impressive in how they dealt with Galway last Sunday, but the Tribesmen will definitely have learnt more from that game and should now improve to cover the handicap.
Racing Post pick: Galway (-3)
* All odds correct at time of posting.