Premier League Tips: Here’s our pick of the fouls match-up bets this weekend

Stats man Oli Nixon's got three value picks.

Having hit some nicely priced singles in this column over the past few Premier League weekends, Football tipster Oli Nixon is back for more.

With that in mind and fresh off another riveting international break he’s pulled out another three selections, all of which are nicely priced as singles or can be combined for a monster treble price if you’re feeling lucky.

Premier League treble tips

Saturday, 12:30pm Leicester v Chelsea – Wilfred Ndidi to commit 1+ foul on Noni Madueke
Sunday, 4:30pm Ipswich v Man United – Manuel Ugarte to commit 1+ foul on Jens Cajuste
Monday, 8pm Newcastle v West Ham – Bruno Guimaraes to commit 1+ foul on Guido Rodriguez

Leicester v Chelsea – Wilfred Ndidi to commit 1+ foul on Noni Madueke

Premier League match at the King Power Stadium, Leicester
TV: TNT Sport, 12:30pm

What’s this? A pick in a Chelsea game that doesn’t involve Moises Caicedo?

The Ecuadorian has served us well, but we’re relying on big Wilf this weekend instead. Ndidi has always been a foul merchant and has averaged 1.5 offences per game across his career for club and country. This season is no different, as he’s made 1.81 fouls per 90, making him Leicester’s most prolific offender.

He has played further forward at times and may do so again here, but his heatmaps show that he tends to cover the opposition’s right-hand side, and with Chelsea likely to dominate the ball, he’ll have plenty of defending to do.

Down that right side, he’ll be tasked with containing the pacey Noni Madueke. The newly capped Englishman has been felled 9 times this season and will fancy his chances of going past Victor Kristiansen at left back.

This will put a heavy emphasis on Ndidi to cover in the channel and with the Nigerian not exactly blessed with pace, he’ll likely have to resort to foul play to stop Madueke.

Ipswich v Man United – Manuel Ugarte to commit 1+ foul on Jens Cajuste

Premier League match at the King Power Stadium, Leicester
TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Premier League, 4:30pm

Manuel Ugarte is one of the most combative players in Europe and was brought into Old Trafford to be their midfield destroyer. He’s certainly done just that as he’s racked up 3.32 fouls per 90 minutes with totals of 2, 6, and 3 in his 3 Premier League starts so far.

Ruben Amorim is a big admirer, and you’d fancy that he’ll start his fellow countryman, and in that case, any opponents in the middle of the park are likely to draw his attention and, therefore, his fouls.

Having taken his time to adapt to life in England, Jens Cajuste has drawn plenty of plaudits after breaking into the Ipswich midfield, not least because of his all-action display against the Spurs last time out. Across three starts, he’s been fouled 0.67 times per 90 and whilst that’s not a huge number, just being in Ugarte’s path is enough to make this a bet at the odds.

Newcastle v West Ham – Bruno Guimaraes to commit 1+ foul on Guido Rodriguez

Premier League match at the St James’ Park
TV: Sky Sports Main Event/Premier League, 8pm

As well as being the Premier League’s most fouled player, Bruno Guimaraes is also ranked 18th for committing fouls. He’s committed 1.65 per 90 this season with at least two fouls in four of his last six starts. He’s made four fouls across his three games against the Hammers and should be in the thick of the action again on Monday night.

Guido Rodriguez will be his likely opponent, with the Argentinian sitting deep in West Ham’s midfield three. While he will no doubt foul Bruno himself, he’s also drawn 0.75 fouls per 90 this season, too.

The cherry on top of this angle is that not only do we have two players who are heavily involved in foul play, but there’s also the added rivalry between a Brazilian and an Argentinian, and you can bet that neither will be able to resist the chance to give the other a late kick.

Premier League betting tips

Saturday, 12:30pm Leicester v Chelsea – Wilfred Ndidi to commit 1+ foul on Noni Madueke
Sunday, 4:30pm Ipswich v Man United – Manuel Ugarte to commit 1+ foul on Jens Cajuste
Monday, 8pm Newcastle v West Ham – Bruno Guimaraes to commit 1+ foul on Guido Rodriguez

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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